Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Muhammad, Fadhlil R.; Lubis, Sandro W.

doi:10.1002/joc.7934

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The present study investigates the poleward migration of spatial asymmetry in TC precipitation in climatology, in which oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions play crucial roles. Considering the significant responses of oceanic and atmospheric conditions to low-frequency variability (such as ENSO, summer monsoon, and IOD) and intraseasonal variability (such as boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation and tropical waves) [50][51][52][53][54], the spatial asymmetry in TC precipitation is likely to be greatly influenced by these factors. It is also noted that the poleward increasing TC translation speed is significantly influenced by steering flow over the WNP, on which the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern has an important effect, especially at higher latitudes [55].…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poleward Migration of Spatial Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over the Western North Pacific

Sun

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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Comprehensive understanding of the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is essential for effective socioeconomic planning and scientific research. The present study examines the spatial asymmetry in TC precipitation over the western North Pacific (WNP) concerning various factors, including latitudes, sea surface temperature (SST), TC intensity, and translation speed, based on satellite observations. The results reveal a significant poleward migration of TC precipitation asymmetry particularly above 15° N. Furthermore, the asymmetry exhibits considerable sensitivity to changes in TC center latitudes and SSTs, characterized by anticlockwise and northeastward migration, respectively. The poleward migration of TC precipitation spatial asymmetry is primarily due to the poleward decreasing SST, increasing vertical wind shear and increasing TC translation speed. These findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of TC behavior over the WNP and provide valuable insights for disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts.

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Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Poleward Migration of Spatial Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over the Western North Pacific

Sun

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…The epochal changes of VIMFC follows the oscillation pattern from south to northward propagation similar as rainfall path Figure 6c. Several supporting reason behind that VIMFC anomalies are coherent with rainfall during ISM season (Li et al, 2018;Muhammad & Lubis, 2022).…”

Section: Spatiotemporal Variation Of Thermodynamic Features During Fl...mentioning

confidence: 95%

Epochal Changes in the Intrinsic Nature/Dynamics of Flood and Drought During Indian Summer Monsoon

Maurya

Verma

Pant

et al. 2023

Earth and Space Science

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The basic and derived meteorological parameters, are important factors that affect the epochal changes of monsoonal drought/flood events which consequently influence the socio‐economic aspects of India. The anomalous tricade departure of parameters namely rainfall, surface pressure, surface temperature, zonal and meridional wind, cloud cover (CC), outgoing longwave radiation, latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux, net incoming shortwave radiation flux and net heat flux (NHF) have been considered between past, and recent tricade respectively drought and flood events. An anomalous decrease (−3 to −2 mm/d) in rainfall over the southern Arabian sea (AS), southern peninsular India and Bay of Bengal during past and recent tricade, on the other side increase (2–2.5 mm/d) in rainfall over the equatorial Indian ocean (EIO) during drought. The drought episode of the recent tricade is showing basin wise significant increase in LHF (20–30 W/m2) and decrease in NHF (−30 to −60 W/m2) from the Somali coast to Indonesian region which is linked with changing oceanic processes linked with the Indian ocean warming. The comparison of past and recent monsoonal flood has shown decrease in the CC over EIO and AS region which supported anomalous highest departure in LHF (12 W/m2) over EIO. A direct association of dry and moist static energy variations have been found to be linked with the surface fluxes during Indian summer monsoon season. Further, epochal differences of vertically integrated moisture flux convergence is consistent with flood/drought rainfall anomaly. Thus, radiative imbalance also plays a secondary role in determining epochal nature of drought/flood variability and its nature.

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“…They show that the increase in the probability of extreme summer precipitation is associated with enhanced large-scale moisture flux convergence and upward moisture transport induced by the active phases of BSISO 4 . The current study takes a similar approach as that of L2013 5 and defines the BSISO modes with a focus on the entire southeast Asia region to maximise the regional variance in computing the EOF modes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For some parts of southeast Asia, the boreal summer rainfall is dominated by the southwest monsoon 2,3 and there are significant contributions from the intraseasonal modes in boreal summer months (see Figure 5 of Xavier et al, 2020) 3 . Despite its importance, there are fewer studies 4 in the literature on the role of northward/northeastward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO, 5 ) and its impact on rainfall extremes over southeast Asia, compared to that of the eastward propagating MJO in the boreal winter season 1,2,6 . Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional features of Boreal summer intraseasonal variability and their relationship with rainfall extremes over Southeast Asia

Diong

Abdullah

Permana

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A regionally focused index of Boreal summer intraseasonal variability (RISV) modes for southeast Asia is used to study their impact on regional rainfall extremes. Four phases to characterise the northward/northeastward propagation of active and suppressed convective regions are defined, which show a clear and distinct impact on the mean and extreme precipitation over various sub-regions of Southeast Asia. Northward propagation of convection is strongly coupled to wind convergence at lower atmospheric levels. A threshold-based precipitation feature detection method has been used to describe the changes in precipitation regimes contributing to rainfall extremes. During the convectively active (suppressed) phases over the region, most of the precipitation is linked to enhanced (suppressed) widespread large-scale convective systems and suppressed (enhanced) isolated smaller-scale intense convective systems. Strong links between the slow-evolving RISV and rainfall extremes suggest that improved prediction of the likelihood of rainfall extremes may be feasible beyond the weather prediction time scales.

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Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

Cited by 8 publications

References 47 publications

Poleward Migration of Spatial Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over the Western North Pacific

Poleward Migration of Spatial Asymmetry in Tropical Cyclone Precipitation over the Western North Pacific

Epochal Changes in the Intrinsic Nature/Dynamics of Flood and Drought During Indian Summer Monsoon

Regional features of Boreal summer intraseasonal variability and their relationship with rainfall extremes over Southeast Asia

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