Impacts of Weather Variability on the International Tourism Receipts—Evidence from Ethiopia (1995–2019)

Abstract

Every economic sector is susceptible to the direct or indirect effects of weather variability, and the tourism sector is no exception. In fact, the tourism industry is considered to be more vulnerable to the effects of weather variability than the general economy, with changes in weather patterns, extreme events, and environmental degradation offering substantial obstacles. Ethiopia’s tourism industry, like many others, faces challenges from weather variability. This study investigates the short- and long-term effects of weather variability on Ethiopia’s international tourism receipts. Utilizing data from 1995 to 2019, the research employs a vector error correction model to analyze the relationships between weather variables (temperature, rainfall), economic factors (GDP growth, inflation), political stability, and tourist arrivals. The findings reveal that in the long run, higher temperatures, rainfall, and inflation have negative impacts on tourism receipts, while political stability and past tourist arrivals have positive effects. Short-term trends mirror these, with the addition of GDP growth not showing a significant impact. To ensure the sustainability of tourism in Ethiopia, the study emphasizes the importance of understanding weather’s influence, developing adaptation strategies, and promoting sustainable tourism practices.

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“…In the short-run, the variable of PRECIP has a negative impact on both international inbound expenditure and the number of overnight visitors. This conclusion is the same as in the work of Gebbisa et al [83] and Fauzel [84]. The variable of temperature TEMP does not have a short-run impact on the inbound travel expenditure and number of overnight visitors.…”

“…Gebbisa et al [83] found that weather variability has an impact on the tourism sector in Ethiopia. The authors used the Johansen model of cointegration, with data for the period 1995-2019, where the number of international tourists and their receipts are used as variables for tourism, while the model also included economic and political stability variables.…”