Impacts to agriculture and critical infrastructure in Argentina after ashfall from the 2011 eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcanic complex: an assessment of published damage and function thresholds

Craig, Heather M.; Wilson, Thomas; Stewart, Carol; Outes, Valeria; Villarosa, Gustavo; Baxter, Peter

doi:10.1186/s13617-016-0046-1

Cited by 50 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Tephra dispersal and fallout represent a source of multiple hazards and impacts for society, including health issues for humans [1] and animals [2], and damage to residential buildings and infrastructure [3], transportation systems [4], and agriculture [5][6][7]. While the fallout of ash and small to (~10 4 -10 6 m 3 ) [35,36].…”

Section: Worldwide Operational Monitoring and Forecasting Of Tephra Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy

et al. 2019

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During explosive eruptions, emergency responders and government agencies need to make fast decisions that should be based on an accurate forecast of tephra dispersal and assessment of the expected impact. Here, we propose a new operational tephra fallout monitoring and forecasting system based on quantitative volcanological observations and modelling. The new system runs at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) and is able to provide a reliable hazard assessment to the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) during explosive eruptions. The new operational system combines data from low-cost calibrated visible cameras and satellite images to estimate the variation of column height with time and model volcanic plume and fallout in near-real-time (NRT). The new system has three main objectives: (i) to determine column height in NRT using multiple sensors (calibrated cameras and satellite images); (ii) to compute isomass and isopleth maps of tephra deposits in NRT; (iii) to help the DPC to best select the eruption scenarios run daily by INGV-OE every three hours. A particular novel feature of the new system is the computation of an isopleth map, which helps to identify the region of sedimentation of large clasts (≥5 cm) that could cause injuries to tourists, hikers, guides, and scientists, as well as damage buildings in the proximity of the summit craters. The proposed system could be easily adapted to other volcano observatories worldwide. medium lapilli has been widely considered as a primary risk agent related to explosive volcanic activity, fallout of coarse lapilli to small blocks falling from plume margins has been underrated. As an example, during the event at Etna on 23 November 2013, clasts from several centimeters to decimeters fell within 5-6 km from the summit and hit hikers who were in the touristic areas [8]. Although the assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal in distal areas has been largely considered [9][10][11][12], the reduction of volcanic impacts in proximal areas and within the first hour from the beginning of the eruption is still a challenge. As a matter of fact, regardless of the importance of this information for emergency responders and government agencies, the operational systems capable of monitoring tephra dispersal and fallout in near-real-time (NRT) and returning the expected impact assessment are still limited and not fully adapted to the growing requirements of precision and reliability.A good example of NRT tephra detection in volcano observatories is represented by the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), which monitors volcanoes within the North Pacific region [13]. The AVO system analyzes data from different satellite sensors. They use a 24/7 automated ash cloud detection algorithm that sends emails and phone text alerts to the AVO members, who are, in turn, responsible for verifying if the automatic alert can be considered as true or false [13]. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors 36 active volcanoes in ...

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Section: Worldwide Operational Monitoring and Forecasting Of Tephra Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy

et al. 2019

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“…Where tephra deposits are sufficiently thick and widespread, municipal/emergency management, volunteer and sometimes commercial resources are required to aid clean-up of urban areas; such concerted responses have been documented in areas impacted by 20-30 mm of tephra in Guatemala City (Wardman et al 2012), 150-170 mm in Villa la Angostura, Argentina Craig et al 2016), and 40 mm in Bariloche, Argentina ). Typically, a concerted response is initiated at around 10 mm thickness of tephra.…”

Section: Determining Quantity Of Tephra For Removalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Property owners dumping tephra on roads or in gutters has in the past led to infiltration of the storm water system, requiring extensive and costly removal operations (Craig et al 2016;Hayes et al 2015). Such activity would add to the duration and cost of clean-up operations.…”

Section: Uncertainties Relating To Removal Volumesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Data from Hayes et al (2015) indicate that deposits >50 mm in thickness need to be removed from vegetated areas, as this thickness is too great for natural incorporation into the soil within reasonable timeframes. If tephra is not removed it can lead to tephra remobilisation, inhibit use of the surface (e.g., recreation activities), and potentially kill the buried vegetation (Craig et al 2016). Hayes et al (2015) proposed tephra accumulation thresholds for when different clean-up responses and methods are initiated (Table 1).…”

Section: Determining Quantity Of Tephra For Removalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

et al. 2017

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Tephra falls can cause a range of impacts to communities by disrupting, contaminating and damaging buildings and infrastructure systems, as well as posing a potential health hazard. Coordinated clean-up operations minimise the impacts of tephra on social and economic activities. However, global experience suggests clean-up operations are one of the most challenging aspects of responding to and recovering from tephra falls in urban environments. Here, we present a method for modelling coordinated municipal-led (town/district level authorities) tephra clean-up operations to support pre-event response and recovery planning. The model estimates the volume of tephra to be removed, clean-up duration, and direct costs. The underpinning component of the model is a scalable clean-up response framework, which identifies and progressively includes more urban surfaces (e.g., roofs, and roads) requiring clean-up with increasing tephra thickness. To demonstrate model applicability, we present four clean-up scenarios for the city of Auckland, New Zealand: 1 mm and 10 mm distal tephra fall across the city, along with two local 'wet' eruption scenarios (low and high volume tephra deposition) from within the Auckland Volcanic Field. Depending on the modelled scenario, outputs suggest that coordinated clean-up operations in Auckland could require the removal of tens of thousands to millions of cubic metres of tephra. The cost of these operations are estimated to be NZ$0.6-1.1 million (US$0.4-0.7 million) for the 1 mm distal tephra scenario and NZ$13.4-25.6 million (US$9-17 million) for the 10 mm distal tephra scenario. Estimated clean-up costs of local eruptions range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars. All eruption scenarios indicate clean-up operations lasting weeks to months, but clean-up in some areas impacted by local eruptions could last for years. The model outputs are consistent with documented historic tephra clean-up operations. Although we use Auckland as a proof-of-concept example, the method may be adapted for any city exposed to a tephra hazard.

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“…It is important to note that there are often many impact types, along with factors such as infrastructure characteristics and decision-making by authorities, which influence whether networks remain open. For example, in New Zealand a main state highway was closed following < 3 mm of ash accumulation from the 2012 Tongariro eruption , Leonard et al 2014), but in Argentina after the 2011 Cordón Caulle eruption, many key roads remained open despite receiving up to 50 mm of ash (Craig et al 2016a). Such differences are likely due to duration of disruption, threat of future ashfall, criticality of the road, previous experiences with volcanic ash and different tolerance levels in different regions (Craig et al 2016a).…”

Section: Background: Quantitative Volcanic Impact Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving volcanic ash fragility functions through laboratory studies: example of surface transportation networks

et al. 2017

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Surface transportation networks are critical infrastructure that are frequently affected by volcanic ash fall. Disruption to surface transportation from volcanic ash is often complex with the severity of impacts influenced by a vast array of parameters including, among others, ash properties such as particle size and deposit thickness, meteorological conditions, pavement characteristics, and mitigation actions. Fragility functions are used in volcanic risk assessments to express the conditional probability that an impact or loss state will be reached or exceeded for a given hazard intensity. Most existing fragility functions for volcanic ash adopt ash thickness as the sole hazard intensity metric that determines thresholds for functional loss. However, the selection of appropriate hazard intensity metrics has been highlighted as a crucial factor for fragility function development and recent empirical evidence suggests that ash thickness is not always the most appropriate metric. We review thresholds of functional loss for existing published surface transportation (i.e. road rail, maritime and airport) fragility functions that use ash thickness. We then refine these existing functions through the application of results from a series of recent laboratory experiments, which investigate the impacts of volcanic ash on surface transportation. We also establish new fragility thresholds and functions, which applies ash-settling rate as a hazard intensity metric. The relative importance of alternative hazard intensity metrics to surface transportation disruption is assessed with a suggested approach to account for these in existing fragility functions. Our work demonstrates the importance of considering ash-settling rate, in addition to ash thickness, as critical hazard intensity metrics for surface transportation, but highlights that other metrics, especially particle size, are also important for transportation. Empirical datasets, obtained from both post-eruption field studies and additional laboratory experimentation, will provide future opportunities to refine fragility functions. Our findings also justify the need for rapid and active monitoring and modelling of various ash characteristics (i.e. not ash thickness alone) during volcanic eruptions, particularly as potential disruption to surface transportation can occur with only~0.1 mm of ash accumulation.

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Impacts to agriculture and critical infrastructure in Argentina after ashfall from the 2011 eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcanic complex: an assessment of published damage and function thresholds

Cited by 50 publications

References 29 publications

Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy

Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy

A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments

Improving volcanic ash fragility functions through laboratory studies: example of surface transportation networks

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