This is the accepted version of the paper.This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. concluded, based on their own review of cognitive and neuroimaging studies of true versus false memories, that "it might be virtually impossible to tell reliably if a particular memory is true or false without independent corroboration (p.373)". On the basis of this evidence it was suggested (Conway, 2009) that perhaps we should be using the term remembering-imaging system (RIS) rather than simply memory system.
Permanent repository link:The RIS is considered further below but first I will consider some aspects of the future.
The Problem Of the FutureIn classical physics/mechanics a system, a collection of objects e.g. particles, fields, waves, etc. is deterministic and reversible (Susskind & Hrabovshy, 2013). This 4 means that given the laws that govern the system and its changes are known, a future state can be predicted exactly. Similarly knowing the state of a system at any given time means that the state of the system at an earlier or later time can be precisely established. Supposing we knew the laws that governed the cognitive, mind/brain, system, could we then, for any given individual, predict the exact state of the system at a future point? I suggest that we could not, (see Dudai & Edelson, submitted for publication, for related arguments). Just as in certain areas of physics, e.g. quantum mechanics, it is not possible to precisely predict a future state of a system, so with people the future is only probable. However, once a future state has come into being it may be possible to work back to previous states. Thus, the cognitive system may be retrospectively reversible (a point interestingly made by Freud, 1920, in the case of psychological states, which given the initial conditions cannot be predicted but working back to initial conditions is at least partly possible). Nevertheless, retrospectively reversible or not, given that there are an infinite number of indeterminate possible futures, this poses a major adaptive problem for goal-driven organisms. This is particularly so as the end point of all unrealized goals lies somewhere in the future. Indeed, in order to have a goal a future state has to be anticipated and often consciously imagined (Cole & Berntsen, 2015). To what extent does the idealized representation of the RIS shown in Figure 1 accurately reflect our memory for the recent past and imaginations of the near future?In a recent study we (Loveday & Conway, 2015) had people list all the personal events they could remember for each of the past 5 days and all the personal events that they the imagined could plausibly occur on each of the next 5 days. The numbers of remembered and imagined future events for each are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 about hereIt can be seen in Figure 2 that the number of recent memories that can be accessed decreases rapidly over the first 3 days but then seems to stabilize and even increase slightly at a retention interval of 5 days. Also, intere...