Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania

Fisher, Brendan; Lewis, Simon L.; Burgess, Neil D.; Malimbwi, R. E.; Munishi, Panteleo K.; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Turner, R. Kerry; Willcock, Simon; Balmford, Andrew

doi:10.1038/nclimate1119

Cited by 126 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…If estimated revenues are insufficient to meet cost demands of REDD, then other tools to fund forest conservation might be considered (e.g., Morse et al 2009, Fisher et al 2011. Conversely, climate change mitigation potential may be lost where emission reductions are more substantial than a feasibility assessment would indicate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Watson¹,

Mourato²,

Milner‐Gulland³

2013

E&S

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ABSTRACT. The environmental integrity of a mechanism rewarding Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) depends on appropriate accounting for emission reductions. Largely stemming from a lack of forest data in developing countries, emission reductions accounting contains substantial uncertainty as a result of forest carbon stock estimates, where the application of biome-averaged data over large forest areas is commonplace. Using a case study in the Bale Mountains in Ethiopia, we exemplify the implications of primary and secondary forest carbon stock estimates on predicted REDD project emission reductions and revenues. Primary data estimate area-weighted mean forest carbon stock of 195 tC/ha ± 81, and biomeaveraged data reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underestimate forest carbon stock in the Bale Mountains by as much as 63% in moist forest and 58% in dry forest. Combining forest carbon stock estimates and uncertainty in voluntary carbon market prices demonstrates the financial impact of uncertainty: potential revenues over the 20-year project ranged between US$9 million and US$185 million. Estimated revenues will influence decisions to implement a project or not and may have profound implications for the level of benefit sharing that can be supported. Strong financial incentives exist to improve forest carbon stock estimates in tropical forests, as well as the environmental integrity of REDD projects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Watson¹,

Mourato²,

Milner‐Gulland³

2013

E&S

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“…While the administrative costs associated with policy implementation are in most cases not prohibitive (Wertz-Kanounikoff, 2008), the costs arising from policy imperfections (e.g., non-additionality and leakage) can be substantial (Blackman, 2010;Fisher et al, 2011). For example, the real cost of forest conservation in for example payments for environmental services (PES) or protected areas (PA) systems may be many times higher than the cost per hectare due to the fact that a large share of payments or land conserved where not threatened by clearing (Blackman, 2010).…”

Section: Results For the Opportunity Cost Of Forest Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the real cost of forest conservation in for example payments for environmental services (PES) or protected areas (PA) systems may be many times higher than the cost per hectare due to the fact that a large share of payments or land conserved where not threatened by clearing (Blackman, 2010). Similarly, Fisher et al (2011) show that implementation cost of REDD+ in Tanzania-through increased agricultural yields and charcoal production efficiency-exceed opportunity costs of forest conservation.…”

Section: Results For the Opportunity Cost Of Forest Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

REDD+ readiness implications for Sri Lanka in terms of reducing deforestation

Mattsson

Persson

Ostwald

et al. 2012

Journal of Environmental Management

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Any system to compensate countries for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) requires a historical reference level against which future performance can be measured. Here we examine the possibilities Sri Lanka, a small forest country with limited data on forest carbon stocks, has to get ready for REDD+. We construct a historical reference level using available forest inventory data combined with updated 2008 and 2009 in situ carbon density data for Sri Lankan forests. Furthermore, we use a combination of qualitative and quantitative data to attribute the clearing of Sri Lankan forests in the latest years for which national forest inventory data are available, 1992-1996, to various proximate drivers and to estimate the opportunity cost of forest conservation. We estimate that baseline deforestation emissions in Sri Lanka amounted to 17 MtCO 2 year -1 in the 1992-1996 period, but conclude that it is challenging for Sri Lanka to produce a robust and accurate reference level due to the lack of nationally based inventories. We find that the majority of forest clearing (87%) is due to small-scale, rainfed farming, with the two other major drivers being rice and tea cultivation. Further, Sri Lankan revenues from REDD+ participation could be substantial, but they are sensitive to REDD+ policy transaction cost, highly uncertain timber revenues, and particularly the carbon price paid for emission reductions. The latter needs to be higher than $5-10/tCO 2 if there are to be substantial incentives for Sri Lanka to participate in REDD+. There is, however, a large gap in the knowledge of deforestation drivers that needs to be filled if Sri Lanka is to formulate an effective policy response to forest degradation in REDD+. For successful REDD+ implementation in Sri Lanka to happen, technological assistance, readiness assistance, and continued political momentum are crucial.

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“…Where NTFPs are significant to local livelihoods, they could increase forest rents and lower the incentives needed to compensate for agricultural rents, although because many NTPFs are common pool resources, they might not represent an incentive for farmers to halt deforestation. Conversely, reliance on NTFPs and fuel wood could also increase conservation incentives needed to discourage forest degradation (55). Despite a moratorium on new industrial logging, illegal logging remains prevalent and licensed small-scale logging is legal (56), but data are lacking.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs

Phelps

Carrasco

Webb

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

175

124

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The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive "slash-andburn" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.swidden | slash and burn | land use change | payment for ecoysystem services | biodiversity N ovel conservation policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and through the conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+) have been deployed in more than four dozen tropical developing countries (1, 2). These propose to financially compensate countries that improve forest conservation and management to reduce emissions and mitigate against climate change. The pantropical initiative has the potential to recruit billions of dollars in annual conservation finance (3) and is the focus of United Nations negotiations and multi-and bilateral agreements between industrialized and developing nations (2). Moreover, REDD+ interventions have the potential to yield knock-on effects, including cobenefits for biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation (3). These incipient REDD+ schemes involve a broad range of conservation interventions, ranging from protected areas establishment, improved environmental governance, and agricultural intensification to motivate land sparing. Intensification to Reduce DeforestationAgricultural intensification-increasing agricultural inputs to improve per-hectare yields rather than expanding land under cultivation-is o...

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Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania

Cited by 126 publications

References 26 publications

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

REDD+ readiness implications for Sri Lanka in terms of reducing deforestation

Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs

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