Objective
To develop a new pediatric illness severity score, called Inpatient Triage, Assessment, and Treatment (ITAT), for resource-limited settings to identify hospitalized patients at highest risk of death and facilitate urgent clinical re-evaluation.
Methods
We performed a nested case-control study at a Malawian referral hospital. The ITAT score was derived from 4 equally-weighted variables, yielding a cumulative score between 0 and 8. Variables included oxygen saturation, temperature, and age-adjusted heart and respiratory rates. We compared the ITAT score between cases (deaths) and controls (discharges) in predicting death within 2 days. Our analysis includes predictive statistics, bivariable and multivariable logistic regression, and calculation of data-driven scores.
Results
A total of 54 cases and 161 controls were included in the analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.76. At an ITAT cutoff of 4, the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio were 0.44, 0.86, and 1.70, respectively. A cumulative ITAT score of 4 or higher was associated with increased odds of death (OR: 4.80; 95% CI: 2.39 – 9.64). A score of 2 for all individual vital signs was a statistically significant independent predictor of death.
Conclusions
We developed an inpatient triage tool (ITAT) appropriate for resource-constrained hospitals that identifies high-risk children after hospital admission. Further research is needed to study how best to operationalize ITAT in developing countries.