Implications of a Climate-Changed Atmosphere on Cool-Climate Viticulture

Abstract

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on viticulture has been thoroughly studied. However, many of the climate projections are limited by the resolution of the models that cannot resolve mesoscale weather patterns, which heavily influence grape production. In this work, data were gathered from the National Center for Atmospheric Research wherein a high-spatiotemporal-resolution (4 km× 4 km, 1 h) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was run from October 2000 to September 2013 over North America using observed data, and again using the atmospheric chemistry of CMIP5 ensemble mean of the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, creating a pseudo–global warming (PGW) model. Such models are capable of resolving the mesoscale influences that most climate models cannot. Contrasting the observed results to the PGW results allows users to compare “what happened” to “what could have happened.” This analysis was applied to four cool-climate viticultural regions in the United States: two in Michigan, one in upstate New York, and one in Oregon. In the PGW run, hours exposed to extreme heat (>32°C) increase by orders of magnitude. Growing season degree-day (GDD) accumulations increase between 783 and 1057 base 10°C in comparing the models, while growing season average temperatures increase between 4.05° and 5.53°C. Precipitation patterns were also studied. The four regions would no longer classify as “cool climate” and would see growing seasons similar to some of the most productive warm-climate wine-producing regions. The authors consider the opportunities and challenges presented by the potential climate shift for cool-climate and warm-climate viticultural regions.

Vitis vinifera Production in Michigan: Factors and Trends Driving Cultivation Patterns

“…However, many recent studies have reported an observed warming trend in most viticultural regions ( Jones, 2005 ; Neethling et al, 2012 ; Santos et al, 2012 ; Bardin-Camparotto et al, 2014 ; Kryza et al, 2015 ). A similar warming trend has been reported in MI ( Schultze et al, 2014 , 2016b ; Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ) and has been linked with the observed expansion in land suitability for both wine and table grapes ( Schultze et al, 2016b ; Wanyama et al, 2020 ). The warming climate is evidenced by increased GDD accumulations in the region ( Schultze et al, 2014 , 2016b ; Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ).…”

“…A similar warming trend has been reported in MI ( Schultze et al, 2014 , 2016b ; Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ) and has been linked with the observed expansion in land suitability for both wine and table grapes ( Schultze et al, 2016b ; Wanyama et al, 2020 ). The warming climate is evidenced by increased GDD accumulations in the region ( Schultze et al, 2014 , 2016b ; Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ).…”

“…Future climate change will likely have numerous effects on viticulture, namely, altered phenological timing, unbalanced flavor and composition of grapes, and reduced climate suitability for specific varieties grown in some regions ( Jones, 2007 ), among others. Increased risk of pests and diseases is also possible because of significant changes in seasonality and precipitation patterns ( Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ). However, climate change is also associated with opportunities, specifically in cool climate viticulture ( Mosedale et al, 2015 ; Schultze et al, 2016b ; Jones, 2018 ).…”

Refining the growing season temperature parameter for use in winegrape suitability analysis

“…In Australia, Hall and Jones (2009) found that the area with a GST between 13 and 21°C may reduce by up to 50% by 2070, which could result in 21 out of the 61 Australia's recognised wine regions sitting outside the GST limits. Internationally, studies have been conducted in New Zealand (Anderson et al 2012), America (Jones 2005, White et al 2006, Hall and Jones 2009, Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2013, Schultze et al 2016, Schultze and Sabbatini 2019), Canada (Shaw 2017), Europe (Jones and Alves 2012, Neethling et al 2012, Koufos et al 2018) and the United Kingdom (Nesbitt et al 2018), have created a growing body of work which indicates that, as the global air temperature warms, viticultural zones will invariably change. On a global scale, Hannah et al (2013) used GST as a metric to assess the suitability of winegrapes in the future for viticulture and concluded that this might decrease by 25 to 73% in major wine producing regions internationally by 2050.…”

Projected Wine Grape Cultivar Shifts Due to Climate Change in New Zealand

“…For instance, if a grape cultivar ripens too early, véraison to harvest may coincide with the hottest period of the season which potentially leads to negative effects on flavor, aroma, and alcohol content of grapes (van Leeuwen and Seguin, 2006 ; Duchêne et al, 2010 ). One of the most critical climatic drivers accelerating phenology is warmer temperature over the full cycle of development (Jones et al, 2005a , b ; Jones, 2012 ; Cook and Wolkovich, 2016 ; van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016 ; Schultze and Sabbatini, 2019 ).…”