Implications of a UK exit from the EU for British agriculture : study for the National Farmers’ Union (NFU), Warwickshire, UK

Abstract

This report offers quantification of effects of possible trade and agricultural support scenarios on the UK agricultural production, trade, farm gate prices and farmers' income levels in case of the UK leaving the EU. The results of each scenario show that for most sectors the biggest driver of UK farm income changes is the level of public support payments available. The positive price impacts on farm incomes seen through both the FTA and WTO default scenario are offset by the loss of direct support payments. A reduction of direct payments, or their complete elimination, would exacerbate the negative impact seen under the UK Trade Liberalisation scenario. Dit rapport biedt een schatting van de effecten van mogelijke handels-en landbouwsteunscenario's voor de productie, handel, prijzen en inkomens in de Britse landbouwsector in geval van een Brexit. De resultaten laten zien dat voor de meeste agrarische sectoren de belangrijkste inkomensgevolgen voortkomen uit veranderingen in de beschikbare directe inkomenssteun. De positieve prijseffecten op landbouwinkomens in zowel het FTA-als het WTO-scenario worden teniet gedaan als de Britse overheid tegelijkertijd directe inkomenssteun aan de sector verlaagt. Een vermindering of totale afbouw van directe inkomenssteun zal de negatieve inkomenseffecten van een Brits liberalisatiescenario verder verslechteren.

Farm economic sustainability in the European Union: A pilot study

“…The idea of non-land based assets is quite context-specifi c in this case as land assets are reluctantly sold in Ireland (Hennessy and Rehman, 2008;: less than 0.1 per cent of land is sold on the open market each year. This condition on return on capital occurs in several papers (Frawley and Commins, 1996;Scott, 2001;Vrolijk et al, 2010;Berkum et al, 2016). Scott (2001) and claim that this condition ensures long-term viability.…”

“…Among the factors infl uencing the defi nition of farm viability, the key difference, apart from the differing elements included, is the varying emphasis on viability as an opportunity cost measure or as a household welfare measure (Table 1). Researchers in the USA and Canada defi ne viability in terms of meeting the income needs of the farm family (Smale et al, 1986;Scott, 2001;Adelaja, 2004) while European defi nitions focus on viability as an opportunity cost measure (Frawley and Commins, 1996;Argilés, 2001;Aggelopoulos et al 2007;Vrolijk et al, 2010;Berkum et al, 2016). It may be the case that the availability of household data has facilitated this, with data within Europe being much more widely available at the farm enterprise level as opposed to the household level.…”

Local Economic Effects of Brexit

“…The GVA impacts under the two different scenarios are reported in Table 2. The would increase domestic demand and estimates from the National Farmers Union (Berkum et al, 2016) suggest that all sub sectors (field crops, horticulture, milk, sheep/goats, cattle, pigs and poultry) would gain from such a setting.…”

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

“…Despite some differences regarding the relative changes in prices and output across the sector and commodities, our estimates are broadly in line with the studies of van Berkum et al . (), Davis et al . () and Bradley and Hill ().…”

“…A few notable studies (Boulanger and Philippidis, ; Bradley and Hill, ; Davis et al ., ; Van Berkum et al ., ) have assessed the potential effects of exit on the UK agricultural sector using different scenarios and assumptions. However, there remains an absence of more comprehensive research including analysis of variation in the effects of different trade and domestic policy options across heterogeneous farm populations and, regionally, among the UK devolved administrations.…”