Implications of all season Arctic sea-ice anomalies  on the stratosphere

Cai, Duy Sinh; Dameris, Martin; Garny, Hella; Runde, Theresa

doi:10.5194/acp-12-11819-2012

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The future Arctic lower stratosphere will significantly cool in early winter between À0.2 and À0.4 K/decade. This stratospheric cooling together with the coincident near-surface warming agrees well with the early winter temperature response to projected future Arctic summer sea ice loss, as found in a CCM simulation by Cai et al [2012]. The same temperature response pattern was diagnosed in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model following the strong Arctic sea ice loss in 2007 [Orsolini et al, 2012].…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes

et al. 2014

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Using multidecadal simulations with the European Centre/Hamburg-Modular Earth Submodel System Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, the role of changing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on Arctic springtime ozone was examined. The focus is on potential changes in the meteorological conditions relevant for Arctic ozone depletion. It is found that with rising GHG levels the lower Arctic stratosphere will cool significantly in early winter, while no significant temperature signal is identified later in winter or spring. A seasonal shift of the lowest polar minimum temperatures from late to early winter in the second part of the 21st century occurs. However, Arctic lower stratosphere temperatures do not seem to decline to new record minima. The future Arctic lower stratosphere vortex will have a longer lifetime, as a result of an earlier formation in autumn. No extended vortex persistence is found in spring due to enhanced dynamical warming by tropospheric wave forcing. Because of the dominant early winter cooling, largest accumulated polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) areas (A PSC ) are projected for the middle of the 21st century. A further increase of A PSC toward the end of the 21st century is prevented by increased dynamical polar warming. EMAC suggests that in the near future, there is a chance of low Arctic springtime ozone in individual years; however, there is no indication of a formation of regular Arctic ozone holes. Toward the end of the 21st century, when ODSs will be close to the 1960 levels, further rising GHG levels will cause increased Arctic springtime ozone.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes

et al. 2014

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“…Two remaining questions that we address are whether different spatial patterns of sea ice loss can also explain the contrasting tropospheric responses in previous studies, and what effects different loss regions have on midlatitude surface temperatures. Since Baldwin and Dunkerton (2001) and many subsequent studies find that a weaker (stronger) polar vortex is often followed by a negative (positive) tropospheric AO/NAO, in studies with more Atlantic (Pacific) sector sea ice loss, we might expect a negative (positive) AO/NAO-indeed, this is the case in Kim et al (2014) (Cai et al, 2012)-and colder (warmer) regions in midlatitudes. However, while SDT15 find that the zonal mean tropospheric eddy-driven jet shifts south (a negative AO) for their Atlantic experiment, they find no shift for their Pacific experiment.…”

Section: 1002/2017gl076433mentioning

confidence: 83%

“…However, these mechanisms remain uncertain because it is difficult to disentangle the complex web of potential processes involved (Overland et al, 2016), there are high levels of natural atmospheric variability (McCusker et al, 2016;Screen et al, 2013), and model results are contrasting-for example, some studies find a positive AO/NAO response (Orsolini et al, 2012;Screen et al, 2014), no significant AO/NAO response (Boland et al, 2016;Screen et al, 2013;Singarayer et al, 2006), or a stronger polar vortex (Cai et al, 2012;Scinocca et al, 2009;Screen et al, 2013;Sun et al, 2014). Here we make understanding these mechanisms more tractable by conducting idealized modeling experiments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts

McKenna

Bracegirdle

Shuckburgh

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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To explore the mechanisms linking Arctic sea ice loss to changes in midlatitude surface temperatures, we conduct idealized modeling experiments using an intermediate general circulation model and with sea ice loss confined to the Atlantic or Pacific sectors of the Arctic (Barents‐Kara or Chukchi‐Bering Seas). Extending previous findings, there are opposite effects on the winter stratospheric polar vortex for both large‐magnitude (late 21st century) and moderate‐magnitude sea ice loss. Accordingly, there are opposite tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) responses for moderate‐magnitude sea ice loss. However, there are similar strength negative AO responses for large‐magnitude sea ice loss, suggesting that tropospheric mechanisms become relatively more important than stratospheric mechanisms as the sea ice loss magnitude increases. The midlatitude surface temperature response for each loss region and magnitude can be understood as the combination of an “indirect” part induced by the large‐scale circulation (AO) response, and a residual “direct” part that is local to the loss region.

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“…S09 examined the transient response of the fully coupled Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model to a sudden reduction in sea ice albedo and found that the polar stratosphere cools in response to Arctic sea ice loss, accompanied by a local reduction in ozone. Other studies based on 'low-top' atmospheric general circulation models without a well-represented stratosphere also find a springtime cooling of the polar stratosphere in response to present and future Arctic sea ice loss (Cai et al 2012, Screen et al 2013. In 2011, Environmental Research Letters Environ.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Building upon the results of S09, Cai et al (2012), and Screen et al (2013), we conduct experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a stateof-the-art chemistry-climate model with a well-resolved stratosphere, to study the impact of future Arctic sea ice loss upon the stratosphere, including its circulation, temperature, and ozone concentration. Unlike S09, who studied the transient response to an abrupt idealized reduction in sea ice in a coupled model context, we here examine the steady-state atmospheric response to late twenty-first century sea ice loss projected by the fully coupled version of WACCM, driven by the RCP8.5 GHG scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring

Sun

Deser

Polvani

et al. 2014

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the stratosphere is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art coupled chemistry climate model. Two 91-year simulations are conducted: one with a repeating seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice for the late twentieth-century, taken from the fully coupled WACCM historical run; the other with Arctic sea ice for the late twenty-first century, obtained from the fully coupled WACCM RCP8.5 run. In response to Arctic sea ice loss, polar cap stratospheric ozone decreases by 13 DU (34 DU at the North Pole) in spring, confirming the results of Scinocca et al (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L24701). The ozone loss is dynamically initiated in March by a suppression of upwardpropagating planetary waves, possibly related to the destructive interference between the forced wave number 1 and its climatology. The diminished upward wave propagation, in turn, weakens the Brewer-Dobson circulation at high latitudes, strengthens the polar vortex, and cools the polar stratosphere. The ozone reduction persists until the polar vortex breaks down in late spring.

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Implications of all season Arctic sea-ice anomalies on the stratosphere

Cited by 17 publications

References 51 publications

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes

Future Arctic temperature and ozone: The role of stratospheric composition changes

Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts

Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring

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