Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia

Lal, M.

doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0166-9

Cited by 86 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Lal (2010) shows that India needs to increase its production by 1.5% per year to feed its developing and growing population, faster than historical experience, but faces likely net cereal production losses in South Asia due to climate change of 4-10% for a 2°C warming. Lal (2010) further argues that warming above 3°C could have catastrophic consequences.…”

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Is a large regional reduction in food security dangerous under the meaning of Article 2, even whilst globally food production may increase? Assume for example that Indian food production is reduced under warming, as suggested by Lal (2010).…”

Section: Preventing Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference With the CLImentioning

confidence: 99%

“…South Asia (Lal 2010;Mirza 2010), Sahelian and northern Africa (Sissoko et al 2010), Ben Mohamed (2010), Mougou et al (2010), Iglesias et al (2010) and parts of Russia (Dronin and Kirilenko 2010) by the time global mean warming reaches around 2°C above preindustrial. Lal (2010) shows that India needs to increase its production by 1.5% per year to feed its developing and growing population, faster than historical experience, but faces likely net cereal production losses in South Asia due to climate change of 4-10% for a 2°C warming.…”

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

et al. 2011

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Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Regional Environmental Change attempt to navigate this problem, by offering an overview of the latest scientific findings in the context of risks and uncertainties, and assess some key vulnerabilities that might lead to dangerous climate change. This synthesis provides an overview of the papers in this issue and looks at four areas of possible dangerous climate changeadverse declines in regional food and water security, loss of arctic sea ice with projected extinction of species, largescale sea-level rise and loss of coral reef systems. These issues affect a number of different regions including Africa, South Asia, and Small Island Developing States. Significant risks to vulnerable regions and systems at warming levels of 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial are identified. The direct effects of CO 2 concentration increases in terms of ocean acidification are identified as relevant to Article 2 because of the risks posed to coral reefs. Ultimate CO 2 stabilization levels that allow for the long-term viability of coral reefs likely are below 350 ppm. The paper concludes by arguing that the emission reduction pledges made by countries under the Copenhagen Accord will not suffice to prevent dangerous climate change.

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Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Preventing Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference With the CLImentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

et al. 2011

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“…The different methods, scales, institutions and legal frameworks by which societies around the world manage water (Gleick and Palaniappan, 2010;Röckstrom et al, 2009) generate tremendous specificity in water systems, while variation in norms and cultural practices leads to a diversity of water management behavior. Access to water ranges from largely uncontrolled (Lal, 2005(Lal, , 2011Srinivasan et al, 2010a, b); to controlled but decentralized (Tanaka et al, 2006), to centralized and highly controlled (Coulibaly et al, 2001).…”

Section: Challenge 4: Social Factors Underlying Coupled Human-water Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Thompson

Sivapalan

Harman

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

130

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Abstract.Globally, many different kinds of water resources management issues call for policy-and infrastructure-based responses. Yet responsible decision-making about water resources management raises a fundamental challenge for hydrologists: making predictions about water resources on decadal-to century-long timescales. Obtaining insight into hydrologic futures over 100 yr timescales forces researchers to address internal and exogenous changes in the properties of hydrologic systems. To do this, new hydrologic research must identify, describe and model feedbacks between water and other changing, coupled environmental subsystems. These models must be constrained to yield useful insights, despite the many likely sources of uncertainty in their predictions. Chief among these uncertainties are the impacts of the increasing role of human intervention in the global water cycle -a defining challenge for hydrology in the Anthropocene. Here we present a research agenda that proposes a suite of strategies to address these challenges from the perspectives of hydrologic science research. The research agenda focuses on the development of co-evolutionary hydrologic modeling to explore coupling across systems, and to address the implications of this coupling on the long-time behavior of the coupled systems. Three research directions support the development of these models: hydrologic reconstruction, comparative hydrology and model-data learning. These strategies focus on understanding hydrologic processes and feedbacks over long timescales, across many locations, and through strategic coupling of observational and model data in specific systems. We highlight the value of use-inspired and team-based science that is motivated by real-world hydrologic problems but targets improvements in fundamental understanding to support decision-making and management. Fully realizing the potential of this approach will ultimately require detailed integration of social science and physical science understanding of water systems, and is a priority for the developing field of sociohydrology.

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“…Investments in regional irrigation and drainage schemes will be needed, where appropriate, to enhance the collection, storage, and distribution of irrigation water and to provide adequate drainage of agricultural lands [122][123][124]. Investments in flood control structures and flood risk management also will be needed in areas where climate change will increase the frequency and severity of floods [108,125,126].…”

Section: Regional Adaptation Effortsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Water and Soils to Achieve Adaptation and Reduce Methane Emissions and Arsenic Contamination in Asian Rice Production

Wichelns

2016

Water

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Rice production is susceptible to damage from the changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, and in the frequency of major storm events that will accompany climate change. Deltaic areas, in which millions of farmers cultivate from one to three crops of rice per year, are susceptible also to the impacts of a rising sea level, submergence during major storm events, and saline intrusion into groundwater and surface water resources. In this paper, I review the current state of knowledge regarding the potential impacts of climate change on rice production and I describe adaptation measures that involve soil and water management. In many areas, farmers will need to modify crop choices, crop calendars, and soil and water management practices as they adapt to climate change. Adaptation measures at the local, regional, and international levels also will be helpful in moderating the potential impacts of climate change on aggregate rice production and on household food security in many countries. Some of the changes in soil and water management and other production practices that will be implemented in response to climate change also will reduce methane generation and release from rice fields. Some of the measures also will reduce the uptake of arsenic in rice plants, thus addressing an important public health issue in portions of South and Southeast Asia. Where feasible, replacing continuously flooded rice production with some form of aerobic rice production, will contribute to achieving adaptation objectives, while also reducing global warming potential and minimizing the risk of negative health impacts due to consumption of arsenic contaminated rice.

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Implications of climate change in sustained agricultural productivity in South Asia

Cited by 86 publications

References 64 publications

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Managing Water and Soils to Achieve Adaptation and Reduce Methane Emissions and Arsenic Contamination in Asian Rice Production

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