Implications of COVID-19 vaccination and public health countermeasures on SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Canada: evidence from a spatial hierarchical cluster analysis

Abstract

Background: The influence of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) containment measures on variants of concern (VOC) has been understudied in Canada. Our objective was to identify provinces with disproportionate prevalence of VOC relative to COVID-19 mitigation efforts in provinces and territories in Canada. Methods: We analyzed publicly available provincial- and territorial-level data on the prevalence of VOCs in relation to mitigating factors (summarized in three measures: 1. strength of public health countermeasures: stringency index, 2. how much people moved about outside their homes: mobility index, and 3. vaccine intervention: proportion of Canadian population fully vaccinated). Using spatial agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis (unsupervised machine learning), the provinces and territories were grouped into clusters by stringency index, mobility index and full vaccine coverage. Kruskal-Wallis test was used to determine the differences in the prevalence of VOC (Alpha, or B.1.1.7, Beta, or B.1.351, Gamma, or P.1, and Delta, or B.1.617.2 variants) between the clusters. Results: Three clusters of vaccine uptake and countermeasures were identified. Cluster 1 consisted of the three Canadian territories, and characterized by higher degree of vaccine deployment and lesser degree of countermeasures. Cluster 2 (located in Central Canada and Atlantic region) was typified by lesser implementation of vaccine deployment and moderate countermeasures. The third cluster was formed by provinces inthe Pacific region, Central Canada, and Prairie region, with moderate vaccine deployment but stronger countermeasures. The overall and variant-specific prevalence were significantly different across the clusters. Interpretation: This study found that implementation of COVID-19 public health measures varied across the provinces and territories. Considering the high prevalence of VOCs in Canada, completing the second dose of COVID-19 vaccine in a timely manner is crucial.

COVID-19 vaccine coverage among immigrants and refugees in Alberta: a population-based cross-sectional study

“…While the Canadian government oversees vaccine approval and procurement, provinces are responsible for the roll-out of vaccination programs. (10,11) COVID-19 vaccination programs in Alberta began in December 2020 in a phased manner, with vaccine availability to the entire population aged 12 and above by mid-May 2021. Records for all COVID-19 vaccines administered in the province, regardless of provider, are submitted to the provincial immunization repository, known as Imm/ARI (with a few exceptions, noted below).…”