Implications of novel risk perspectives for ice management operations

Haimelin, Risto; Goerlandt, Floris; Kujala, Pentti; Veitch, Brian

doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2016.10.004

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Joakim Haugen et al [3] describe a framework of an ice observer system for aiding decisions regarding risk assessment of the ice environment, and present Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) as a viable sensor platform for dynamic positioning systems. Risto Haimelin et al [4] discusse the risks in ice management operations caused by uncertainties arising in the light of novel risk perspectives, and define an ice management system. Charles C. Ryerson [5] provides a review of ice protection strategies for functional platform areas and suggests a framework for assessing the relative threat of ice accumulation types.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Ice Management for Oil and Gas Platforms in the Bohai Sea

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2017

Polish Maritime Research

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Bohai is a typical marginal oil field in an ice region, where most of the oil and gas platforms are economical. Sea ice is the main factor that affects the safety of oil and gas platforms in Bohai. Due to the complexity of the ice load and ice-induced vibrations, there are large security risks when developing Bohai oil and gas in the winter. It is difficult to ensure the safe production of oil and gas in winter using existing sea ice disaster warning technologies. Based on winter oil and gas production in the Bohai

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Ice Management for Oil and Gas Platforms in the Bohai Sea

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2017

Polish Maritime Research

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“…Red dashed regression line dictates the failure of models to predict Black Swans or any larger oil spills; blue data points would stay close to the red line if a prediction is near true values. Therefore, careful consideration of separate expert judgment may be necessary for a risk analysis context, as Haimelin et al 77 proposed. Future research can also focus on capturing parameter uncertainty in the modeling, which is vital for uncertainty-based risk perspectives.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An optimized metamodel for predicting damage and oil outflow in tanker collision accidents

Das

Goerlandt

Tabri

2021

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M:

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Society is concerned about maritime accidents since pollution, such as oil spills from ship accidents, adversely affects the marine environment. Operational and strategic pollution preparedness and response risk management are essential activities to mitigate such adverse impacts. Quantitative risk models and decision support systems (DSS) have been proposed to support these risk management activities. However, there currently is a lack of computationally fast and accurate models to estimate oil spill consequences. While resource-intensive simulation models are available to make accurate predictions, these are slow and cannot easily be integrated into quantitative risk models or DSS. Hence, there is a need to develop solutions to accelerate the computational process. A fast and accurate metamodel is developed in this work to predict damage and oil outflow in tanker collision accidents. To achieve this, multiobjective optimization is applied to three metamodeling approaches: Deep Neural Network, Polynomial Regression, and Gradient Boosting Regression Tree. The data used in these learning algorithms are generated using state-of-the-art engineering models for accidental damage and oil outflow dynamics. The multiobjective optimization approach leads to a computationally efficient and accurate model chosen from a set of optimized models. The results demonstrate the metamodel’s robust capacity to provide accurate and computationally efficient estimates of damage extents and volume of oil outflow. This model can be used in maritime risk analysis contexts, particularly in strategic pollution preparedness and response management. The models can also be linked to operational response DSS when fast, and reasonably accurate estimates of spill sizes are critical.

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“…There are also "black swan" events [4,22,32]. These are rare or surprising events with the potential for severe or extreme consequences that are not captured in traditional risk analyses.…”

Section: Risk Perspectives and Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Arctic maritime operations are complex socio-technical systems [1][2][3][4]. Not only are the vessels and crews exposed to risks, but the environment and local communities will be impacted by the consequences of shipping.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Framework for Integrating Life-Safety and Environmental Consequences into Conventional Arctic Shipping Risk Models

et al. 2020

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The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and entered into force on 1 January 2017. It provides a comprehensive treatment of topics relevant to ships operating in Polar regions. From a design perspective, in scenarios where ice exposure and the consequences of ice-induced damage are the same, it is rational to require the same ice class and structural performance for such vessels. Design requirements for different ice class vessels are provided in the Polar Code. The Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology provided in the Polar Code offers valuable guidance regarding operational limits for ice class vessels in different ice conditions. POLARIS has been shown to well reflect structural risk, and serves as a valuable decision support tool for operations and route planning. At the same time, the current POLARIS methodology does not directly account for the potential consequences resulting from a vessel incurring ice-induced damage. While two vessels of the same ice class operating in the same ice conditions would have similar structural risk profiles, the overall risk profile of each vessel will depend on the magnitude of consequences, should an incident or accident occur. In this paper, a new framework is presented that augments the current POLARIS methodology to model consequences. It has been developed on the premise that vessels of a given class with higher potential life-safety, environmental, or socio-economic consequences should be operated more conservatively. The framework supports voyage planning and real-time operational decision making through assignment of operational criteria based on the likelihood of ice-induced damage and the potential consequences. The objective of this framework is to enhance the safety of passengers and crews and the protection of the Arctic environment and its stakeholders. The challenges associated with establishing risk perspectives and evaluating consequences for Arctic ship operations are discussed. This methodology proposes a pragmatic pathway to link ongoing scientific research with risk-based methods to help inform recommended practices and decision support tools. Example scenarios are considered to illustrate the flexibility of the methodology in accounting for varied risk profiles for different vessel types, as well as incorporating input from local communities and risk and environmental impact assessments.

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Implications of novel risk perspectives for ice management operations

Cited by 13 publications

References 19 publications

Sea Ice Management for Oil and Gas Platforms in the Bohai Sea

Sea Ice Management for Oil and Gas Platforms in the Bohai Sea

An optimized metamodel for predicting damage and oil outflow in tanker collision accidents

A Framework for Integrating Life-Safety and Environmental Consequences into Conventional Arctic Shipping Risk Models

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