Implications of size-dependent tree mortality for tropical forest carbon dynamics

Gora, Evan M.; Esquivel‐Muelbert, Adriane

doi:10.1038/s41477-021-00879-0

Cited by 67 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 112 publications

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“…When species-poor communities face dramatic climatic changes, significant migration may be needed and AGB may be significantly depressed after the early mortality of the original tree population. Such processes may be the cause of the current increased mortality [13] if sustaining the earlier AGB is not possibly energetically.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

Larjavaara

Chen

et al. 2021

Carbon Balance Manage

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Background Understanding how warming influence above-ground biomass in the world’s forests is necessary for quantifying future global carbon budgets. A climate-driven decrease in future carbon stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. Here we evaluate the impact of rising air temperature on the future above-ground biomass of old-growth forests using a model that explains well the observed current variation in the above-ground biomass over the humid lowland areas of the world based on monthly air temperature. Results Applying this model to the monthly air temperature data for 1970–2000 and monthly air temperature projections for 2081–2100, we found that the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests is expected to decrease everywhere in the humid lowland areas except boreal regions. The temperature-driven decrease is estimated at 41% in the tropics and at 29% globally. Conclusions Our findings suggest that rising temperatures impact the above-ground biomass of old-growth forests dramatically. However, this impact could be mitigated by fertilization effects of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results on tree growth are valuable but insufficient for understanding the forest-warming feedback for which stored C matters, as mortality is likely to change as well [13]. For example, if mortality increases more than growth, a warming-triggered boost in growth will lead to reduced biomass and C emissions into the atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

Larjavaara

Chen

et al. 2021

Carbon Balance Manage

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“…‘Lower elevation’ was assigned as a risk factor only in Amacayacu (Colombia), HKK (Thailand) and Pasoh (Malaysia); while the ‘smaller tree’ risk was more important in HKK and KC (Thailand), and in Fushan (Taiwan). These differences may be a consequence of the different local impact of El Niño related droughts in 2015–2016, which are expected to leave a topography and tree size signature (Zuleta et al ., 2017; Gora & Esquivel‐Muelbert, 2021). Unfortunately, our time series was not enough to study the relationship between climate and mortality patterns.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

et al. 2021

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Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

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“…When species-poor communities face dramatic climatic changes, signi cant migration may be needed and AGB may be signi cantly depressed after the early mortality of the original tree population. This kind of processes may be the cause of the current increased mortality (11), if sustaining the earlier AGB is not possibly energetically.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Results on tree growth are valuable but insu cient to understanding the forest-warming-feedback for which stored C matters, as mortality is likely to change as well (11). For example, if mortality increases more than growth, a warming-triggered boost in growth will lead to educed biomass.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Rising Temperatures on the Biomass of Humid Old-Growth Forests of the World

Larjavaara

Chen

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: Understanding how warming temperatures are influencing biomasses in the world’s forests is necessary for quantifying future global C (carbon) budgets. A temperature-driven decrease in future C stocks could dangerously strengthen climate change. Empirical methods for studying the temperature response of forests have important limitations, and modelling is needed to provide another perspective. We modelled current and future AGB (old-growth above-ground biomass) in humid lowland areas of the world by dividing GPP (gross primary productivity) and a measure of energy needed to support a given about of biomass called here MCB (maintenance cost per unit biomass). Results: Based on the modelling, we predict a temperature-driven increase in both GPP and MCB, except in the tropics, where GPP will decrease. Their ratio, and therefore also ABG, is expected to decrease in all other regions except the boreal. The AGB is expected to decrease 41% in the tropics and 29% globally.Conclusions: The estimated drops in AGB are dramatic. However, we did not include the fertilisation effects of increasing CO2 (carbon dioxide) and N (nitrogen) that potentially mitigate the temperature-caused drop in AGB.

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Implications of size-dependent tree mortality for tropical forest carbon dynamics

Cited by 67 publications

References 112 publications

Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

Impact of rising temperatures on the biomass of humid old-growth forests of the world

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Impact of Rising Temperatures on the Biomass of Humid Old-Growth Forests of the World

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