Importance of Framing for Extreme Event Attribution: The Role of Spatial and Temporal Scales

Kirchmeier‐Young, Megan C.; Wan, Hui; Zhang, Xuebin; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

doi:10.1029/2019ef001253

Cited by 31 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 are no larger than 0.3°C for TXx and 0.5° C for Rx1day, with the exception of the SAH. The results are qualitatively consistent with those of Kirchmeier‐Young et al (2019) for a subset of two ESMs and based on analyses with aggregated grid cell data.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

2020

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We analyze projected changes in climate extremes (extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation) in the multimodel ensembles of the fifth and sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results reveal close similarity between both ensembles in the regional climate sensitivity of the projected multimodel mean changes in climate extremes, that is, their projected changes as a function of global warming. This stands in contrast to widely reported divergences in global (transient and equilibrium) climate sensitivity in the two multimodel ensembles. Some exceptions include higher warming in the South America monsoon region, lower warming in Southern Asia and Central Africa, and higher increases in heavy precipitation in Western Africa and the Sahel region in the CMIP6 ensemble. The multimodel spread in regional climate sensitivity is found to be large in both ensembles. In particular, it contributes more to intermodel spread in projected regional climate extremes compared with the intermodel spread in global climate sensitivity in CMIP6. Our results highlight the need to consider regional climate sensitivity as a distinct feature of Earth system models and a key determinant of projected regional impacts, which is largely independent of the models' response in global climate sensitivity. Plain Language Summary Many articles analyze and compare global climate sensitivity in climate models, that is, how their global warming differs at a given level of CO 2 concentrations. However, global warming is only one quantity affecting impacts. To assess human-and ecosystem-relevant impacts, it is essential to evaluate the regional climate sensitivity of climate models, that is, how their regional climate features differ at a given level of global warming. We analyze here regional climate sensitivity in the new multimodel ensemble that will underlie the conclusions of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This ensemble of model projections is called the "Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" or CMIP6. We find that differences in regional climate sensitivity between models in CMIP6 often contribute more to the uncertainty of regional extremes projections than the uncertainty in global mean warming between models. Overall, the regional climate sensitivity features in the CMIP6 models' projections ensemble are very similar to those of the prior ensemble (CMIP5), although the model ensembles have been highlighted to differ in their global climate sensitivity over the 21st century.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 89%

Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

2020

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“…The larger regions often show less uncertainty around the return period estimates, consistent with reductions in variability when averaging over larger spatial scales. For precipitation extremes, the spatial scale can have a large impact on event attribution results (20). The North American mean shows dramatic reductions in return periods.…”

Section: Extreme Event Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[17][18][19]. In general, an attributable change in the likelihood of extreme precipitation events defined over larger spatial scales and longer time periods can be found earlier (20). Fischer and Knutti (21) note that anthropogenic forcing has increased the likelihood of heavy precipitation events on a global scale at current warming levels, with further increases at higher levels of warming.…”

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confidence: 99%

Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America

Kirchmeier‐Young

Zhang

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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188

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Precipitation extremes have implications for many facets of both the human and natural systems, predominantly through flooding events. Observations have demonstrated increasing trends in extreme precipitation in North America, and models and theory consistently suggest continued increases with future warming. Here, we address the question of whether observed changes in annual maximum 1- and 5-d precipitation can be attributed to human influence on the climate. Although attribution has been demonstrated for global and hemispheric scales, there are few results for continental and subcontinental scales. We utilize three large ensembles, including simulations from both a fully coupled Earth system model and a regional climate model. We use two different attribution approaches and find many qualitatively consistent results across different methods, different models, and different regional scales. We conclude that external forcing, dominated by human influence, has contributed to the increase in frequency and intensity of regional precipitation extremes in North America. If human emissions continue to increase, North America will see further increases in these extremes.

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“…increased as a result of human-induced climate change. As pointed out by Kirchmeier-Young et al (2019), and documented also for Northern Europe by Leach et al, the temporal and spatial scales are important for making such an attribution statement.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

Wilcke¹,

Kjellström²,

Lin³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Two long-lasting high pressure systems in summer 2018 lead to long lasting heat waves over Scandinavia and other parts of Europe and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on agriculture, infrastructure and human life. We use five climate model ensembles and the unique 263 year long Stockholm temperature time series along with a composite 150 year long time series for whole Sweden to set the latest heat-wave in summer 2018 in historical perspective. With 263 years we are able to grasp the pre-industrial time well and see a clear upward trend in temperature itself as well as heat wave indicators. With five climate model ensembles providing 20 580 simulated summers representing the latest 70 years, we analyse the likelihood of such a heat event and how unusual the 2018 Swedish summer actually was. We find that conditions as those observed in summer 2018 show up in all climate model ensembles. An exception is the monthly mean temperature for May for which 2018 was warmer than any member in one of the five climate model ensembles. However, even if the ensembles generally hold individual years like 2018, the comparison shows that such conditions are rare. For the indices assessed here, anomalies such as observed in 2018 occur maximally in 5 % of the ensemble members, sometimes even in less than 1 %. For all indices evaluated we find that probabilities of a summer like in 2018 have increased from relatively low values for the one ensemble extending back to 1861–90 and for all five ensembles including 1951–80 to the most recent decades (1989–2018). An implication is that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer such as the one observed 2018 to occur in Sweden. Despite this, we still find such summers also in the pre-industrial climate, however, with a lower probability.

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Importance of Framing for Extreme Event Attribution: The Role of Spatial and Temporal Scales

Cited by 31 publications

References 27 publications

Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles

Human influence has intensified extreme precipitation in North America

The extremely warm summer 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context

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