Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change  in determining future composition in U.S. Central  Hardwood Forests

Wang, Wen J.; He, Hong S.; Thompson, Frank R.; Fraser, Jacob S.; Hanberry, Brice B.; Dijak, William D.

doi:10.1890/es15-00238.1

Cited by 60 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Harvesting effects were found to be more important than projected climate warming impacts on the composition of forests in Siberia (Gustafson et al., ) and northeastern China (Li et al., ). Rather, our results are more aligned with those projected for the temperate forest of the central US (Wang et al., ) where the effects of harvesting on forest vegetation were estimated to be less important than climate change in the long term (e.g. >100 years).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

et al. 2017

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Forest ecosystems contain several climate‐sensitive drivers that respond differentially to changes in climate and climate variability. For example, growth and regeneration processes are “stand‐scale” drivers, while natural disturbances operate at “landscape scale”. The relative contributions of these different scale drivers of change in ecosystems create great uncertainty when simulating potential responses of a forest to changes in climate. Here, we assess those contributions, along with harvesting effects, on biomass (both total and of individual species) in the southern boreal forest of Canada under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Projections were performed for three future 30‐year time periods, in four study regions located on an east–west transect, using a forest landscape model (LANDIS‐II), parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS). Projected future impacts were assessed for each driver of change, and found to vary greatly among regions, species, future period and forcing scenarios. Fire, and stand‐scale climate‐induced impacts, had the strongest effects on forest vegetation, as well as on total and species’ biomass under most RCP scenarios, but the largest impacts occurred mostly after 2050, particularly with the RCP 8.5 scenario. The relative importance and trends in species‐specific impacts varied, both spatially and according to the different RCP scenarios. Western regions were generally more sensitive to stand‐scale climate‐induced changes, whereas eastern regions were more sensitive to changes in fire regime. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the prevalence of species‐level functional traits when assessing the sensitivity of forest landscapes to a given driver of change in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate forcing. Synthesis. Increases in fire activity, and direct impacts of climate change on forest growth and regeneration, will be the most important drivers of future changes in southern boreal forest landscapes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

et al. 2017

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“…We also expect that red maple will continue its increase in dominance and northward expansion (Duchesne & Ouimet ; Nowacki & Abrams ) in a context of rising temperatures and higher disturbance rates than in the 20th century (Wang et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire is a stronger driver of forest composition than logging in the boreal forest of eastern Canada

Boucher

Auger

Noël

et al. 2016

J Vegetation Science

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Aims Our study aimed to: (1) document the preindustrial (1925) forest composition prior to extensive logging; (2) document the magnitude of changes from 1925 to 2005; and (3) identify the relative influence of logging and natural disturbances as drivers of the present‐day forest composition. Location Boreal forest in central Quebec, eastern Canada. Methods We used a dense network of georeferenced historical (~1925) forest plots (n = 30 033) to document preindustrial forest composition. We evaluated the magnitude of changes with the present‐day using modern plots (1980s to 2000s). We reconstructed a long‐term, spatially explicit history of logging, spruce budworm outbreaks (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.], SBO), and fire using historical maps and field surveys. Results In the preindustrial period, late successional coniferous taxa (Abies balsamea and Picea spp.) dominated the landscape, whereas early successional deciduous taxa (Betula spp. and Populus spp.) were confined to recently burned areas. In the present‐day landscape, large areas dominated by late successional coniferous taxa have been replaced by early successional deciduous taxa. Forest communities dominated by early successional deciduous taxa increased sharply throughout the study area. Logging has been a minor driver of these changes compared to fire and SBOs. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of documenting the long‐term history of both anthropogenic and natural disturbances in order to assess their relative contributions to the development of the present‐day forest ecosystems. Natural disturbances have remained the main drivers of forest composition during the 20th century, whereas logging played a less important role. In the current context of global change, long‐term experimental research is required to help forecast impacts of natural disturbances and forest management on boreal forest composition.

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“…We obtained soil data for each land type including thickness, soil organic matter, nitrogen, water content at field capacity, water content at saturation, wilting point, percent clay, sand and rock, hydraulic conductivity at field capacity and an exponent for estimating hydraulic conductivity from SSURGO (http://soils.usda.gov/). We compiled species biological traits required by LINKAGES 3.0 including maximum growth rates, drought tolerance, shade tolerance, nitrogen tolerance and growing degree‐day requirements from previous studies, which calibrated the biological traits for 62 eastern U.S. tree species in LINKAGES 3.0 (Dijak et al., ; Wang et al., ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the LANDIS PRO model because it has been extensively calibrated with forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data (O'Connell et al., ) and applied to multiple regions in the eastern United States (e.g. Brandt et al., ; Janowiak et al., ; Wang, He, Thompson, & Fraser, ; Wang et al., ,b, , ). We addressed the following questions: (a) how will tree species distributions change under climate change over the 21st century with the current regime of tree harvest, urban growth and natural fire; and (b) are there interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distribution changes?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

Wang

Thompson

et al. 2019

Journal of Ecology

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Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The distributions of 20 tree species contracted and nine species expanded within the region under climate change by end of 21st century. Distribution changes for all tree species were very slow and lagged behind the changes in potential distributions that were in equilibrium with new climatic conditions. Tree harvest and climate change interacted to affect species occurrences and colonization but not extinction. Occurrence and colonization were mainly affected by tree harvest and its interaction with climate change while extinctions were mainly affected by tree harvest and climate change. Synthesis and applications. Interactive effects of climate and tree harvest acted in the same direction as climate change effects on species occurrences, thereby accelerating climate change induced contraction or expansion of distributions. The overall interactive effects on species colonization were negative, specifically with positive interactive effects at leading edges of species ranges and negative interactive effects at trailing edges. Tree harvest generally did not interact with climate change to greatly facilitate or ameliorate species extinction. Our modelling results highlight the importance of considering disturbances and species demography (e.g. post‐harvest regeneration dynamics) when predicting changes in tree distributions.

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Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change in determining future composition in U.S. Central Hardwood Forests

Cited by 60 publications

References 57 publications

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

Fire is a stronger driver of forest composition than logging in the boreal forest of eastern Canada

Climate change and tree harvest interact to affect future tree species distribution changes

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