Despite China taking significant steps to reduce nitrogen input from human activities into inland rivers by raising nitrogen emission standards, climate change has exacerbated the flow of reactive nitrogen, creating additional pressure for nitrogen reduction. To evaluate the necessity and sustainability of these raised standards, this study presents a comprehensive data set summarizing total nitrogen and ammonia concentrations from 1702 sites across 10 major basins from 2015 to 2024. The analysis normalizes factors, including land use, nitrogen deposition, litter, soil leaching, biological nitrogen fixation, and the spatiotemporal fluxes of agricultural fertilization, organized by month within 50 × 50 km grids. Using numerical training, the study assesses the influence of these factors on river nitrogen exposure and predicts changes in river nitrogen levels under four climate change scenarios and three emission scenarios for 2050. The findings indicate that if climate change continues at the current rate (ssp3–7.0), total nitrogen concentrations in rivers nationwide could increase by (6.51 ± 13.68) %. However, raising the total nitrogen concentration standard from 20 mg L⁻1 to 15 mg L⁻1 can reduce the total nitrogen concentration in rivers by (8.22 ± 19.39) %. Nitrogen emission policies should be tailored to specific river basins and seasons. Notably, northern river basins may need to elevate nitrogen emission standards to Class IV to counterbalance the additional nitrogen emissions resulting from climate change.