Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonised by Aedes albopictus: mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy

Sochacki, Thomas; Jourdain, Frédéric; Perrin, Yvon; Noël, Harold; Paty, Marie-Claire; Valk, Henriette de; Septfons, Alexandra; Simard, Frédéric; Fontenille, Didier; Roche, Benjamín

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.es.2016.21.18.30221

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…For this reason, it is particularly indicated in situations where the transmission risk needs to be reduced drastically and quickly, such as when an individual is diagnosed with an MBD, to prevent or curtail an outbreak [ 3 ]. Since the effectiveness of reactive measures decreases with the delay between outbreak initiation and implementation of control [ 4 ], a better approach may consist in preventive interventions. Treatment of potential breeding sites with larvicide products has a delayed impact in reducing adult populations [ 3 ], but experimental studies show that their effect lasts for several weeks [ 5 ], making them better suited for preventive routine control.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe

et al. 2017

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In the last decades, several European countries where arboviral infections are not endemic have faced outbreaks of diseases such as chikungunya and dengue, initially introduced by infectious travellers from tropical endemic areas and then spread locally via mosquito bites. To keep in check the epidemiological risk, interventions targeted to control vector abundance can be implemented by local authorities. We assessed the epidemiological effectiveness and economic costs and benefits of routine larviciding in European towns with temperate climate, using a mathematical model of Aedes albopictus populations and viral transmission, calibrated on entomological surveillance data collected from ten municipalities in Northern Italy during 2014 and 2015.We found that routine larviciding of public catch basins can limit both the risk of autochthonous transmission and the size of potential epidemics. Ideal larvicide interventions should be timed in such a way to cover the month of July. Optimally timed larviciding can reduce locally transmitted cases of chikungunya by 20% - 33% for a single application (dengue: 18–22%) and up to 43% - 65% if treatment is repeated four times throughout the season (dengue: 31–51%). In larger municipalities (>35,000 inhabitants), the cost of comprehensive larviciding over the whole urban area overcomes potential health benefits related to preventing cases of disease, suggesting the adoption of more localized interventions. Small/medium sized towns with high mosquito abundance will likely have a positive cost-benefit balance. Involvement of private citizens in routine larviciding activities further reduces transmission risks but with disproportionate costs of intervention. International travels and the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases are increasing worldwide, exposing a growing number of European citizens to higher risks of potential outbreaks. Results from this study may support the planning and timing of interventions aimed to reduce the probability of autochthonous transmission as well as the nuisance for local populations living in temperate areas of Europe.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe

et al. 2017

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“…Reduction of reporting delays should be a priority as suggested by previous theoretical assessment of public health strategies to reduce the risk of autochthonous transmission [ 29 , 30 ]. However, a recent modeling study [ 31 ] estimated that shortening the delay from symptom onset to intervention (from an average of 6 to an average of 3 days) would have brought limited reductions in the size of the 2017 chikungunya outbreak.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy

Manica,

Marini,

Solimini

et al. 2023

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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Background Emerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission. Methodology/principal findings Using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak. Conclusions/significance These results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.

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“…In any case, it is well known that a long temporal lapse between outbreak initiation and the start of control tasks reduces effectiveness of adulticides applications significatively in terms of cost-benefits (Burattini et al, 2008 ). Therefore, the best approach is to supply reactive adulticides by preventive larvicides as a basis of the control programme, since the treatment of potential breeding sites with larvicides has a proven role in the reduction of adult population at local scale in urban environments (Sochacki et al, 2016 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imported Zika Virus in a European City: How to Prevent Local Transmission?

Millet¹,

Montalvo²,

Bueno-Marí³

et al. 2017

Front. Microbiol.

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Background: On February 1st 2016 the WHO declared the Zika Virus (ZIKV) infection a worldwide public health emergency because of its rapid expansion and severe complications, such as Guillain-Barré Syndrome or microcephaly in newborn. The huge amount of people traveling to endemic areas and the presence of Aedes albopictus in Barcelona increase the risk of autochtonous transmission. The objective of this study was to describe the first ZIKV cases diagnosed in our city and to analyze the surveillance, prevention, and control measures implemented to avoid autochthonous transmission.Methods: An observational cross-sectional population-based study in Barcelona, Spain was performed.An analysis of the socio-demographic, epidemiological, clinical characteristics, and mosquito control activities of the ZIKV cases detected between January 1st and December 2016 was carried out using a specific ZIKV epidemiological survey of the Barcelona Public Health Agency.Results: A total of 118 notifications of possible ZIKV infections were received, and 44 corresponded to confirmed cases in Barcelona residents.Amongst these, the median age was 35 years and 57% were women. All cases were imported, 48% were Spanish-born and 52% foreign-born. Dominican Republic was the most visited country amongst foreign-born patients and Nicaragua amongst Spanish-born. The most frequent symptoms were exanthema, fever, and arthralgia. Among the 24 diagnosed women, 6 (25%) were pregnant. There was one case of microcephaly outside Barcelona city. Entomological inspections were done at the homes of 19 cases (43.2% of the total) and in 34 (77.3%) public spaces. Vector activity was found in one case of the 44 confirmed cases, and 134 surveillance and vector control were carried out associated to imported ZIKV cases. In all cases prevention measures were recommended to avoid mosquito bites on infected cases.Conclusion: Epidemiological and entomological surveillance are essential for the prevention of autochthonous transmission of arbovirosis that may have a great impact on Public Health.The good coordination between epidemiologists, entomologists, microbiologists, and clinicians is a priority in a touristic city with an intense relationship with endemic countries to minimize the risk of local transmission by competent vectors.

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Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonised by Aedes albopictus: mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy

Cited by 6 publications

References 26 publications

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe

Effectiveness and economic assessment of routine larviciding for prevention of chikungunya and dengue in temperate urban settings in Europe

Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy

Imported Zika Virus in a European City: How to Prevent Local Transmission?

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