Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for granger causality in the frequency domain

Aluko, Olufemi Adewale; Adeyeye, Olufemi Patrick

doi:10.1080/09638199.2020.1751870

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…These results support the agricultural import-led growth hypothesis which suggests that imports growth has a positive and significant effect on economic growth. The results are in line with the findings of Uslu (2016) and Aluko and Adeyeye (2020) that imports cause GDP growth in certain countries. Nonetheless, as also shown in Table 5, agricultural imports do not Granger-cause GDP per capita growth in oil exporter or low-income non-oil exporter subsamples.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Agricultural Imports, Agriculture Productivity and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mwangi¹,

Chen²,

Njoroge³

2020

JAT

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Debate on agricultural trade can be traced back from the negotiations on agricultural trade under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which came into force in 1948. Later, significant progress toward agricultural trade reforms were covered and continues to be negotiated upon by the World Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture, which came into force in 1995 as a result of the 1986-1994 Uruguay Round of world trade negotiations supported by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (WTO, 2016). Since 1994, agricultural trade has been liberalized, which has led to increased globalization and integration. World Trade Organization members commit themselves to general agricultural trade rules pertaining to market access, domestic support, and export competition within well-defined timelines. The ultimate goal of these negotiations is to improve the livelihoods of farmers around the world through implementing sound agricultural trade regulations and domestic policies that promote competition and reduce distortions in agricultural trade (WTO, 2016). The research on agricultural trade and economic growth has therefore been gaining attention in the recent past both in developed and developing countries.Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are agriculture-based, and agriculture accounts for about 32% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on average (World Bank, 2008). In addition, more than 65% of the total population in the region is employed in the agriculture sector, although Africa in general has recently been experiencing rapid agricultural exits particularly in oil-producing countries (Headey et al., 2010). Nevertheless, Africa's agriculture has the potential to reduce rural and urban poverty, which explains why boosting agriculture productivity remains a critical priority (Mozumdar, 2012). In SSA, the sector's production remains relatively low compared with other regions in the world. Agriculture total factor productivity in SSA has been generally low and highly volatile, with an annual growth rate ranging between −0.05 and +0.05 for both low-and middle-income countries for the period 1962-2015 (USDA 2019). Stagnation in agriculture productivity in the region has resulted in low agricultural output and consequently low global share of Africa's agricultural

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Agricultural Imports, Agriculture Productivity and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mwangi¹,

Chen²,

Njoroge³

2020

JAT

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“…Their research findings approve the unidirectional causality between growths to import in four of the nine provinces surveyed in South Africa. Aluko and &Adeyeye (2020) , also observed that there is uni-directional causality between short-term and long-term economic growth and imports in several of the 41 countries surveyed but in our research there is no indication persistent with the GLI hypothesis and there is no indication persistent with the GLI hypothesis and neutrality hypothesis. The FB hypothesis in high frequency level is validate in 4 countries (France, Italy, UK and USA) and in low frequency level is proved Japan only.…”

Section: Conclusion and Limitationscontrasting

confidence: 54%

“…Using Toda &Yamamoto (1995) Granger non causality test, their research findings illustrate that there is no causal effects between import and economic growth in more than half of the countries, which proves that the causality is not exist between import and economic growth. Correspondingly, Aluko and Adeyeye (2020) tested the causal relationship between imports and economic growth in 41 African economies. Their research findings show that the uni-directional causality exists between import and economic growth, and the uni-directional causality found between economic growth and import in a few countries, the neutrality hypothesis is effective in the short and long term in most countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The causal nexus between imports and economic growth in China, India and G7 countries: granger causality analysis in the frequency domain

Usman

Bashir

2022

Heliyon

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“…The transmission could result in an economic-wide recession. Causality has been established between imports, exports and economic growth (Bakari & Mabrouki, 2017) (Aluko & Adeyeye, 2020). The authors applied cointegration analysis and vector autoregressive models to test bidirectional causalities from import to economic growth and from export to economic growth.…”

Section: Economic Growth Is Represented By the Gross Domestic Product...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between globalisation and economic growth in West Africa

Wanger

2022

JGSS

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Economic integration among countries, as a result of globalisation, could be beneficial to trading partners if properly handled through appropriate regulation of production, distribution, and consumption. However, it appears developing countries often do not benefit from their economic relations with other countries at advanced stages of developed. It is in view of this that this research was conducted with concentration on West Africa. In this study Panel Cointegration Techniques including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality Test were applied using time series on Gross Domestic Product, Exports, Imports and Foreign Direct Investment of eight West African countries from 1960–2019. While a positive and significant long run causal relationship was found between Exports, Imports as aspects of globalisation and Gross Domestic Product, there was an observed negative long run relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Product. Export promotion, hight import tariffs, the local content initiative, liberal migration policies and strong regulatory machinery were recommended.

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Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for granger causality in the frequency domain

Cited by 20 publications

References 33 publications

Agricultural Imports, Agriculture Productivity and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Agricultural Imports, Agriculture Productivity and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

The causal nexus between imports and economic growth in China, India and G7 countries: granger causality analysis in the frequency domain

The relationship between globalisation and economic growth in West Africa

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