Impossible Predictions of the Unprecedented: Analogy, History, and the Work of Prognostication

Denning, Kathryn

doi:10.1007/978-3-642-35983-5_16

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…She characterizes it as a significant part of the modern worldview, what Karl Guthke 20 years ago called "the myth of modern times," using myth to mean that which culture holds to be part of its overarching worldview (Guthke 1990). In this she is in agreement with Denning's view that "contact has now been rehearsed so many times in popular culture that these representations and their dissemination in new media will be influential beyond almost any other factor" (Denning 2011a(Denning , 2013. Capova furthermore emphasizes how polls indicate belief in some form of "other life," whether microbial, humanoid or postbiological, hovers around 50 % of those populations polled.…”

Section: Overview Of Part IIIsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…In contrast to Denning (2013), all these authors make the point, as have we in this chapter, that prediction of societal reaction to the discovery of extraterrestrial life, whether microbial or intelligent, is impossible, but that analogy employing Earth history can nevertheless serve as a useful guide when appropriate precautions are taken. Denning's title "Impossible Predictions of the Unprecedented: Analogy, History, and the Work of Prognostication," therefore seems to set up a straw man.…”

Section: Overview Of Part IIImentioning

confidence: 90%

“…In what has become, surprisingly but understandably, a central point of contention in this volume, anthropologist/archaeologist Kathryn Denning (2013) argues that the use of historical analogies of culture contacts on Earth may be "essentially useless or perhaps worse than useless," that predictions about contact on this basis are impossible and likely harmful, and that the humanities and social science scholars might better use their time to examine other issues at the intersection of astrobiology, SETI and society. She recognizes what is surely true-that the source analogue (contact among cultures on Earth) is often not well understood, that some authors have used this erroneous history uncritically in attempts to shed light on the target analogue (contact with extraterrestrials), and that as a first step the history of culture contacts on Earth must be better understood.…”

Section: Overview Of Part IIImentioning

confidence: 98%

“…These are often what I would call "polemical analogies," and the goal of analogical argument should not be to polemicize but to illuminate. Secondly, as Denning (2013) warns in this volume, it is easy to get carried away with analogy, descending to a level of detail unlikely to be useful and maybe even irrelevant, if not downright harmful. We conclude analogy must not be so general as to be meaningless, nor so specific as to be misleading.…”

Section: The Validity and Role Of Analoguesmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The Societal Impact of Extraterrestrial Life: The Relevance of History and the Social Sciences

Dick

2013

Astrobiology, History, and Society

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This chapter reviews past studies on the societal impact of extraterrestrial life and offers four related ways in which history is relevant to the subject: the history of impact thus far, analogical reasoning, impact studies in other areas of science and technology, and studies on the nature of discovery and exploration. We focus particularly on the promise and peril of analogical arguments, since they are by necessity widespread in the field. This chapter also summarizes the relevance of the social sciences, particularly anthropology and sociology, and concludes by taking a closer look at the possible impact of the discovery of extraterrestrial life on theology and philosophy. In undertaking this study we emphasize three bedrock principles: (1) we cannot predict the future; (2) society is not monolithic, implying many impacts depending on religion, culture and worldview; (3) the impact of any discovery of extraterrestrial life is scenario-dependent.

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Section: Overview Of Part IIIsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Overview Of Part IIImentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Overview Of Part IIImentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: The Validity and Role Of Analoguesmentioning

confidence: 98%

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The Societal Impact of Extraterrestrial Life: The Relevance of History and the Social Sciences

Dick

2013

Astrobiology, History, and Society

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“…Both assumptions introduce problems for SETI research because they are built on analogies with popularized accounts of human history; visions of history which are already politicized and partial (Denning, 2013).…”

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confidence: 99%

Visions of human futures in space and SETI

Wright

Oman-Reagan

2017

International Journal of Astrobiology

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We discuss how visions for the futures of humanity in space and SETI are intertwined, and are shaped by prior work in the fields and by science fiction. This appears in the language used in the fields, and in the sometimes implicit assumptions made in discussions of them. We give examples from articulations of the so-called Fermi Paradox, discussions of the settlement of the Solar System (in the near future) and the Galaxy (in the far future), and METI. We argue that science fiction, especially the campy variety, is a significant contributor to the "giggle factor" that hinders serious discussion and funding for SETI and Solar System settlement projects. We argue that humanity's long-term future in space will be shaped by our short-term visions for who goes there and how. Because of the way they entered the fields, we recommend avoiding the term "colony" and its cognates when discussing the settlement of space, as well as other terms with similar pedigrees. We offer examples of science fiction and other writing that broaden and challenge our visions of human futures in space and SETI. In an appendix, we use an analogy with 1 the well-funded and relatively uncontroversial searches for the dark matter particle to argue that SETI's lack of funding in the national science portfolio is primarily a problem of perception, not inherent merit.Keywords: SETI -science fiction -human spaceflight -colonialism -futures Visions of SETI and Human SpaceflightThe topics of SETI, human spaceflight, and humanity's long-term futures are intertwined. As we engage with outer space we bring history and culture with us and it becomes a "cultural landscape" (Gorman, 2009), a place that shapes and is in turn shaped by culture. Steven J. Dick 1 has called for a "systematic approach" applying anthropology to SETI and finds evidence in historical collaborations that this would be beneficial to both fields (Dick, 2006). As a collaboration between an astronomer and an anthropologist, this paper draws on both interdisciplinary SETI work and anthropology to discuss factors shaping the cultural landscapes of space with special attention to ways we imagine and talk about possible futures through science fiction.Human spaceflight, extraterrestrial intelligence, and the distant future are commonly completely blended in science fiction. Visions of humans traveling among the stars and encountering alien life are perhaps the quintessential science fiction trope. At first glance, it would seem that the endeavors of SETI and human spaceflight are generally more separated than this: the former has historically comprised relatively small, mostly privately-funded efforts concentrated among radio astronomers and a few others; the latter has comprised major governmental efforts by the United States, the former Soviet Union, Russia, and their partner nations for decades. 2Here we consider the more ambitious projects for human spaceflight of the sort aspired to by many governments but never (so far) seriously attempted: the permanent settlement of the So...

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Introduction and Objectives

Ashkenazi¹

2016

Space and Society

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Impossible Predictions of the Unprecedented: Analogy, History, and the Work of Prognostication

Cited by 18 publications

References 9 publications

The Societal Impact of Extraterrestrial Life: The Relevance of History and the Social Sciences

The Societal Impact of Extraterrestrial Life: The Relevance of History and the Social Sciences

Visions of human futures in space and SETI

Introduction and Objectives

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