Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015

Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Boyer, Tim; Abraham, John; Zhu, Jiang

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601545

Cited by 617 publications

(612 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Owing to its large heat capacity, the ocean accumulates energy derived from human activities, with more than 90 % of the Earth's residual energy related to global warming absorbed by the ocean (IPCC, Cheng et al, 2017). As such, the record of the global ocean heat content robustly represents the signature of global warming, as it is less impacted by weather-related noise and climate variability such as El Niño and La Niña events (Cheng et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE). While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle-lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900-2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

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Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

et al. 2018

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“…Southern Ocean is a highly dynamic component of the global ocean circulation that plays a key role in the transport of heat, the uptake of carbon, and the global climate system [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. The Southern Ocean circulation is largely wind driven.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Confirmation of ENSO-Southern Ocean Teleconnections Using Satellite-Derived SST

2018

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Abstract:The Southern Ocean is the focus of many physical, chemical, and biological analyses due to its global importance and highly variable climate. This analysis of sea surface temperatures (SST) and global teleconnections shows that SSTs are significantly spatially correlated with both the Antarctic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation, with spatial correlations between the indices and standardized SST anomalies approaching 1.0. Here, we report that the recent positive patterns in the Antarctic and Southern Oscillations are driving negative (cooling) trends in SST in the high latitude Southern Ocean and positive (warming) trends within the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics and mid-latitudes. The coefficient of regression over the 35-year period analyzed implies that standardized temperatures have warmed at a rate of 0.0142 per year between 1982 and 2016 with a monthly standard error in the regression of 0.0008. Further regression calculations between the indices and SST indicate strong seasonality in response to changes in atmospheric circulation, with the strongest feedback occurring throughout the austral summer and autumn.

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“…Recent observational analyses indicate that thermosteric contributions account for nearly 40% of total global sea-level rise since~1970 [1] as approximately 93% of the 1970-2010 additional heat added to the climate system has been stored in the ocean [2]. However, there are potentially large uncertainties due to lack of ocean temperature observations, particularly for the deep ocean (below 2000 m) [1, [3][4][5], and in the Southern Hemisphere, where observational coverage is sparse [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Uncertainties in both observed and modeled sea-level change can influence interpretations about sea-level rise risks [14][15][16], such as flooding, increased storm surge and coastal erosion [1, 16,17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the Effect of Ocean Internal Variability on Depth-Integrated Steric Sea-Level Rise Trends Using a Low-Resolution CESM Ensemble

Hogan

Sriver

2017

Water

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Abstract:Ocean heat uptake is a key indicator of climate change, in part because it contributes to sea-level rise. Quantifying the uncertainties surrounding ocean heat uptake and sea-level rise are important in assessing climate-related risks. Here, comprehensive global climate model ensembles are used to evaluate uncertainties surrounding decadal trends in depth-integrated global steric sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean. Results are presented against observational estimates, which are used as a guide to the state of recent literature. The first ensemble uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which samples the effects of internal variability within the coupled Earth system including contributions from the sub-surface ocean. We compare and contrast these results with an ensemble based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which samples the combined effects of structural model differences and internal variability. The effects of both internal variability and structural model differences contribute substantially to uncertainties in modeled steric sea-level trends for recent decades, and the magnitude of these effects varies with depth. The 95% range in total sea-level rise trends across the CESM ensemble is 0.151 mm·year −1 for 1957-2013, while this range is 0.895 mm·year −1 for CMIP5. These ranges increase during the more recent decade of 2005-2015 to 0.509 mm·year −1 and 1.096 mm·year −1 for CESM and CMIP5, respectively. The uncertainties are amplified for regional assessments, highlighting the importance of both internal variability and structural model differences when considering uncertainties surrounding modeled sea-level trends. Results can potentially provide useful constraints on estimations of global and regional sea-level variability, in particular for areas with few observations such as the deep ocean and Southern Hemisphere.

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Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015

Abstract: A new assessment of how much heat Earth has accumulated since 1960 is made by examining ocean heat content changes.

Cited by 617 publications

References 70 publications

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Confirmation of ENSO-Southern Ocean Teleconnections Using Satellite-Derived SST

Analyzing the Effect of Ocean Internal Variability on Depth-Integrated Steric Sea-Level Rise Trends Using a Low-Resolution CESM Ensemble

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