Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change

Gaines, Steven D.; Costello, Christopher; Owashi, Brandon; Mangin, Tracey; Bone, Jennifer; Molinos, Jorge García; Burden, Merrick; Dennis, Heather; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kleisner, Kristin M.; Ovando, Daniel

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao1378

Cited by 205 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The development of new fisheries as species shift their distributions is emerging as an important adaptation strategy to climate change, albeit one with intrinsic major challenges as species shift across local, national and international boundaries (Gaines et al, ; Pinsky et al, ). Although shifts in the distribution of commercially important fish stocks have already led to new fishery opportunities and positive economic impacts in some high latitude regions (Jansen et al, ), the socio‐economic consequences of range‐shifting species are still largely under‐explored (Madin et al, ).…”

Section: Approaches To Managing Tropicalised Reefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

et al. 2019

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Temperate reefs from around the world are becoming tropicalised, as warm‐water species shift their distribution towards the poles in response to warming. This is already causing profound shifts in dominant foundation species and associated ecological communities as canopy seaweeds such as kelp are replaced by tropical species. Here, we argue that the cascading consequences of tropicalisation for the ecosystem properties and functions of warming temperate reefs depend largely on the taxa that end up dominating the seafloor. We put forward three potential tropicalisation trajectories, that differ in whether seaweeds, turf or corals become dominant. We highlight potential gains to certain ecosystem functions for some tropicalisation endpoints. For example, local benthic fish productivity may increase in some tropicalised reefs as a higher proportion of primary production is directly consumed, but this will be at the expense of other functions such as carbon export. We argue that understanding these changes in flows of energy and materials is essential to formulate new conservation strategies and management approaches that minimise risks as well as capture potential opportunities. Regardless of which trajectory is followed, tropicalised systems represent largely novel ecosystem configurations. This poses major challenges to traditional conservation and environmental management approaches, which typically focus on maintaining or returning species to particular locations. We outline management practices that may either mitigate predicted structural and functional changes or make the most of potential new opportunities in tropicalised reefs. These include marine protected areas to increase resilience and connectivity, the development of new fisheries that target range‐expanding invaders, and assisted evolution and migration strategies to facilitate the dominance of large habitat formers like corals or seaweeds. We highlight important ecological and ethical challenges associated with developing novel approaches to manage tropicalised reefs, which may need to become increasingly interventionist. As technological innovations continue to emerge, having clear goals and considering the ethics surrounding interventions among the broader community are essential steps to successfully develop novel management approaches. A plain language summary is available for this article.

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Section: Approaches To Managing Tropicalised Reefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

et al. 2019

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“…Previous studies demonstrate the importance of local stocks with adaptive diversity to long-term sustainability of fish stocks, fisheries, and ecosystems (Bradbury et al, 2010). Improved projections of how climate change can lead to shifts in the distribution of deep-sea species is critically important in developing effective management measures that account for such changes, especially those spatial measures that aim to preserve refugia areas or local fish stocks, to aid conservation of VMEs, or secure food, income and livelihoods from fisheries (Bates et al, 2019;Cheung et al, 2017Cheung et al, , 2010Gaines et al, 2018;Thresher, Guinotte, Matear, & Hobday, 2015;Tittensor et al, 2010). Such improved projections can also inform the designation of 'other effective area-based conservation measures' (OECMs; CBD, 2018a;IUCN WCPA, 2019).…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic

Morato

González-Irusta

Domínguez-Carrió

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We used the Gaines et al [19] climate-linked fisheries bioeconomic model to examine country-level changes in fisheries status, catches, and profits under three emissions scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; Table S1) and five management scenarios (Table 1) from 2012 to 2100. Gaines et al [19] evaluated the 915 single- and mixed-species stocks from Costello et al [16] with the data required to assess current status and forecast future distributions. In this analysis, we evaluated only the 779 single-species stocks, because the spatial distributions of the mixed-species stocks could not be projected by Gaines et al [19] and therefore could not be spatially allocated into country jurisdictions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gaines et al [19] evaluated the 915 single- and mixed-species stocks from Costello et al [16] with the data required to assess current status and forecast future distributions. In this analysis, we evaluated only the 779 single-species stocks, because the spatial distributions of the mixed-species stocks could not be projected by Gaines et al [19] and therefore could not be spatially allocated into country jurisdictions. Projections began in 2012 with initial biomasses, fishing mortalities, and conditions (i.e., B/B MSY ) determined by aggregating values from Costello et al [16] and initial distributions determined by AquaMaps [22].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

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Mangin

Molinos

et al. 2019

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20Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, 21climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human 22society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate 23 scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact 24 of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of 25implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting 26 productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative 27to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% 28of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would 29 yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all 30 countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch 31for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries 32 management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-33year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, 34the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is 35bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could 36 generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in 37 productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture 38and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive 39 management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we 40provide guidance on implementing -and achieving the benefits of -climate-adaptive fisheries 41reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities. 42 43 44Marine fisheries provide a vital source of food for over half the world's population and 45 support the livelihoods of over 56 million people globally [1].

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Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change

Abstract: Future effects of climate change on ocean fisheries could be more than offset by management reforms for current fisheries.

Cited by 205 publications

References 45 publications

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

Tropicalisation of temperate reefs: Implications for ecosystem functions and management actions

Climate‐induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold‐water corals and commercially important deep‐sea fishes in the North Atlantic

Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

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