Improved monthly streamflow prediction using integrated multivariate adaptive regression spline with K-means clustering: implementation of reanalyzed remote sensing data

Abstract

This study investigates monthly streamflow modeling at Kale and Durucasu stations in the Black Sea Region of Turkey using remote sensing data. The analysis incorporates key meteorological variables, including air temperature, relative humidity, soil wetness, wind speed, and precipitation. The study also investigates the accuracy of multivariate adaptive regression (MARS) with Kmeans clustering (MARS-Kmeans) by comparing it with single MARS, M5 model tree (M5Tree), random forest regression (RF), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP). In the first modeling stage, principal component regression is applied to diverse input combinations, both with and without lagged streamflow (Q), resulting in twenty-three and twenty input combinations, respectively. Results demonstrate the critical role of including lagged Q for improved model accuracy, as models without lagged Q exhibit significant performance degradation. The second stage involves a comparative analysis of the MARS-Kmeans model with other machine-learning models, utilizing the best-input combination. MARS-Kmeans, incorporating three clusters, consistently outperforms other models, showcasing superior accuracy in predicting monthly streamflow.