Improved probability of detection of ecological “surprises”

Abstract

Ecological "surprises" are defined as unexpected findings about the natural environment. They are critically important in ecology because they are catalysts for questioning and reformulating views of the natural world, help shape assessments of the veracity of a priori predictions about ecological trends and phenomena, and underpin questioning of effectiveness of resource management. Despite the importance of ecological surprises, major gaps in understanding remain about how studies might be done differently or done better to improve the ability to identify them. We outline the kinds of ecological surprises that have arisen from long-term research programs that we lead in markedly different ecosystems around the world. Based on these case studies, we identify important lessons to guide both existing studies and new investigations to detect ecological surprises more readily, better anticipate unusual ecological phenomena, and take proactive steps to plan for and alleviate "undesirable" ecological surprises. Some of these lessons include: (i) maintain existing, and instigate new, long-term studies; (ii) conduct a range of kinds of parallel and concurrent research in a given target area; (iii) better use past literature and conceptual models of the target ecosystem in posing good questions and developing hypotheses and alternative hypotheses; and (iv) increase the capacity for ecological research to take advantage of opportunities arising from major natural disturbances. We argue that the increased anticipatory capability resulting from these lessons is critical given that ecological surprises may become more prevalent because of climate change and multiple and interacting environmental stressors.

Climate warming mediates negative impacts of rapid pond drying for three amphibian species

“…When nonadditive interactions between stressors occur, the magnitude and direction of their combined impacts are difficult to anticipate. Mitigating the consequences of these ecological surprises (Paine et al 1998, Lindenmayer et al 2010) requires empirical evaluations of stressor interactions. Here, we quantified the individual and interactive effects of increased water temperature and pool drying rate on three larval amphibians (S. intermontana, P. regilla, and R. aurora) that exhibit fastto-slow larval development.…”

Understanding the responses of ocean biota to a complex matrix of cumulative anthropogenic change

“…Marine ecologists can learn much from how entire ecosystems are perturbed across entire lakes (Carpenter et al 2011), or in coastal waters using mesocosms (Riebesell 2004). Such studies enhance our understanding of the extent and nature of the 'ecological surprises' that may result from a changing climate (Lindenmayer et al 2010). Other ecologically relevant topics which may influence or result from differential vulnerability across trophic levels, but which are beyond the scope of this Introduction, include: biodiversity and ecosystem dynamics (Vinebrooke et al 2004); altered species distributions through migration (Parmesan et al 1999) and invasion (Jaspers et al 2011); and the nature of competitive versus facilitative relationships between organisms (Bulleri 2009).…”

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

“…Anticipating state transitions in terrestrial ecosystems largely hinges on understanding the response of primary producers to warming temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and novel disturbance regimes (4)(5)(6)(7). In arid and semiarid ecosystems (drylands), a substantial portion of primary production can take place in biological soil crusts (biocrusts; Fig.…”