Improvement and Uncertainties of Global Simulation of Sulfate Concentration and Radiative Forcing in CESM2

Abstract

Sulfate is a major atmospheric pollutant and radiative forcing (RF) factor that influences air quality, cloud microphysics and climate. Therefore, a better evaluation of sulfate concentrations and RF patterns is essential for policy-making and the management of air pollution and climate change. This study comprehensively estimates the global distribution of sulfate concentrations and RFs and analyzes the sources of uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and the Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer (PORT) model. Compared with the observations, the incorporation of detailed in-cloud aqueous-phase chemistry and the enhanced wet deposition flux of sulfate significantly improved the simulations of sulfur species both near the ground and at high altitudes, which is beneficial for a more accurate estimation of the global sulfate RF. The improved simulated RF of sulfate from 1850 to 2015 is -0.382 W.m -2 . This study finds that wet deposition is the key process governing both the horizontal and vertical distributions of sulfate concentrations. The overestimation of surface sulfate and the underestimation of high-altitude sulfate made by the model are essential uncertainty factors of the sulfate RF estimation. This study emphasizes the importance of improving the simulation of global sulfate distribution as well as its RF, which may strongly pressure the near-future warming potential when witnessing a rapid transition to a carbon neutral world that is phasing out fossil fuel. A more accurate assessment of sulfate levels and radiation effects will play a remarkable guiding role in the formulation of global emission reduction-related policies in the future.