Improvement of the 24 hr forecast of surface UV radiation using an ensemble approach

Krzyścin, Janusz W.; Guzikowski, Jakub; Pietruczuk, Aleksander; Sobolewski, Piotr

doi:10.1002/met.1865

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…National weather services and other agencies use models to predict the diurnal course of the UVI (e.g., every hour) for one or several days into the future (e.g., the Israel Meteorological Service ( https://ims.gov.il/en/UVIHourly ), the German Meteorological Service ( https://kunden.dwd.de/uvi/index.jsp ), and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ( https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/observatory/evidence/projections-and-tools/cams-uv-index-forecast ). New methods for improving UVI forecasts have recently been proposed based on an “ensemble member” approach, where a model is executed multiple times with different initial conditions [ 330 ], and a machine learning algorithm [ 331 ].…”

Section: Advances In Uv Monitoring and Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, and climate interactions

Bernhard

Bais

Aucamp³

et al. 2023

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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This assessment provides a comprehensive update of the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone and other factors (aerosols, surface reflectivity, solar activity, and climate) on the intensity of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The assessment is performed in the context of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its Amendments and Adjustments. Changes in UV radiation at low- and mid-latitudes (0–60°) during the last 25 years have generally been small (e.g., typically less than 4% per decade, increasing at some sites and decreasing at others) and were mostly driven by changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosol content, caused partly by climate change and partly by measures to control tropospheric pollution. Without the Montreal Protocol, erythemal (sunburning) UV irradiance at northern and southern latitudes of less than 50° would have increased by 10–20% between 1996 and 2020. For southern latitudes exceeding 50°, the UV Index (UVI) would have surged by between 25% (year-round at the southern tip of South America) and more than 100% (South Pole in spring). Variability of erythemal irradiance in Antarctica was very large during the last four years. In spring 2019, erythemal UV radiation was at the minimum of the historical (1991–2018) range at the South Pole, while near record-high values were observed in spring 2020, which were up to 80% above the historical mean. In the Arctic, some of the highest erythemal irradiances on record were measured in March and April 2020. For example in March 2020, the monthly average UVI over a site in the Canadian Arctic was up to 70% higher than the historical (2005–2019) average, often exceeding this mean by three standard deviations. Under the presumption that all countries will adhere to the Montreal Protocol in the future and that atmospheric aerosol concentrations remain constant, erythemal irradiance at mid-latitudes (30–60°) is projected to decrease between 2015 and 2090 by 2–5% in the north and by 4–6% in the south due to recovering ozone. Changes projected for the tropics are ≤ 3%. However, in industrial regions that are currently affected by air pollution, UV radiation will increase as measures to reduce air pollutants will gradually restore UV radiation intensities to those of a cleaner atmosphere. Since most substances controlled by the Montreal Protocol are also greenhouse gases, the phase-out of these substances may have avoided warming by 0.5–1.0 °C over mid-latitude regions of the continents, and by more than 1.0 °C in the Arctic; however, the uncertainty of these calculations is large. We also assess the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on climate, focusing on the poleward shift of climate zones, and discuss the role of the small Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 on the devastating “Black Summer” fires in Australia. Additional topics include the assessment of advances in measuring and modeling of UV radiation; methods for determining personal UV exposure; the effect of solar radiation management (stratospheric aerosol injections) on UV radiation relevant for plants; and possible revisions to the vitamin D action spectrum, which describes the wavelength dependence of the synthesis of previtamin D3 in human skin upon exposure to UV radiation. Graphical abstract

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Section: Advances In Uv Monitoring and Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%