Improvement of the analog forecasting method by using local thermodynamic data. Application to autumn precipitation in Catalonia

Gibergans-Báguena, José; Llasat, M. C.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.04.002

Cited by 27 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Multiple linear regression is a widely used method for generating high-resolution forecasts (e.g., Murphy 1999;Wilby et al 2003). We have recently seen a growing interest in this latter technique, which adapts well-forecast synoptic variables issued by meteorological models to provide a conditional distribution for more local variables like the expected rainfall (Bliefernicht and Bá rdossy 2007;Gibergans-Bá guena and Llasat 2007;Diomede et al 2008). These include the Schaake shuffle of Clark et al (2004) and the analog sorting technique proposed by Obled et al (2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Real-Time Daily PQPF by an Analog Sorting Approach: Application to Flash-Flood Catchments

Marty

Zin

Obled

et al. 2012

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Heavy-rainfall events are common in southern France and frequently result in devastating flash floods. Thus, an appropriate anticipation of future rainfall is required: for early flood warning, at least 12-24 h in advance; for alerting operational services, at least 2-3 days ahead. Precipitation forecasts are generally provided by numerical weather prediction models (NWP), and their associated uncertainty is generally estimated through an ensemble approach. Precipitation forecasts also have to be adapted to hydrological scales. This study describes an alternative approach to commonly used limited-area models. Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) are provided through an analog sorting technique, which directly links synoptic-scale NWP output to catchment-scale rainfall probability distributions. One issue concerns the latest developments in implementing a daily version of this technique into operational conditions. It is shown that the obtained PQPFs depend on the meteorological forecasts used for selecting analogous days and that the method has to be reoptimized when changing the source of synoptic forecasts, because of the NWP output uncertainties. Second, an evaluation of the PQPFs demonstrates that the analog technique performs well for early warning of heavy-rainfall events and provides useful information as potential input to a hydrological ensemble prediction system. It is shown that the obtained daily rainfall distributions can be unreliable. A statistical correction of the observed bias is proposed as a function of the no-rain frequency values, leading to a significant improvement in PQPF sharpness.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward Real-Time Daily PQPF by an Analog Sorting Approach: Application to Flash-Flood Catchments

Marty

Zin

Obled

et al. 2012

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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“…In this paper, we present a MOS adaptation of the popular analog methodology (hereafter referred to as MOS analog). The analog method was first developed for weather forecasting [ Lorenz , 1969; Obled et al , 2002; Gibergans‐Baguena and Llasat , 2007] and later applied to climate scales [ Zorita et al , 1995; Cubasch et al , 1996; Zorita and von Storch , 1999; Timbal et al , 2003; Benestad et al , 2008], so it is nowadays a popular and widely used technique in climate change studies. The analog method is based on the hypothesis that “analogue” atmospheric patterns (predictors) should cause “analogue” local effects (predictands).…”

Section: Methodology: Mos Based On Analogsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain

et al. 2011

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[1] Model Output Statistics (MOS) has been recently proposed as an alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling approach for Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs. In this case, the model output for the variable of interest (e.g. precipitation) is directly downscaled using observations. In this paper we test the performance of a MOS implementation of the popular analog methodology (referred to as MOS analog) applied to downscale daily precipitation outputs over Spain. To this aim, we consider the state-of-the-art ERA40-driven RCMs provided by the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project and the Spain02 gridded observations data set, using the common period 1961-2000. The MOS analog method improves the representation of the mean regimes, the annual cycle, the frequency and the extremes of precipitation for all RCMs, regardless of the region and the model reliability (including relatively low-performing models), while preserving the daily accuracy. The good performance of the method in this complex climatic region suggests its potential transferability to other regions. Furthermore, in order to test the robustness of the method in changing climate conditions, a cross-validation in driest or wettest years was performed. The method improves the RCM results in both cases, especially in the former.Citation: Turco, M., P. Quintana-Seguí, M. C. Llasat, S. Herrera, and J. M. Gutiérrez (2011), Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain,

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“…Improvements were later suggested by Guilbaud (1997), Obled et al (2002), Bontron (2004), Gibergans-Báguena and Llasat (2007), Bliefernicht and Bardossy (2007).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

Daoud¹,

Sauquet²,

Lang³

et al. 2011

Adv. Geosci.

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Abstract. This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable.

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Improvement of the analog forecasting method by using local thermodynamic data. Application to autumn precipitation in Catalonia

Cited by 27 publications

References 40 publications

Toward Real-Time Daily PQPF by an Analog Sorting Approach: Application to Flash-Flood Catchments

Toward Real-Time Daily PQPF by an Analog Sorting Approach: Application to Flash-Flood Catchments

Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain

Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

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