In the present study, the GAB and moisture migration rate models were used to predict the shelf life of paprika under domestic (40 °C and 90% RH) and industrial (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C with 70% RH) storage conditions. The correlations between physicochemical characteristics and moisture content of paprika were developed to estimate the stability of the paprika. The estimated shelf life of low moisture paprika (4.40% dry basis) was found to be 101 and 31 days in HDPE and LDPE packages, respectively when stored in domestic condition. In industrial storage condition, the shelf life prediction was 5.47 years in HDPE and 1.68 years in LDPE packages. The first order kinetic models of extractable color (ASTA) and degree of caking described the quality degradation of paprika during storage. The relative humidity and temperature of the storage environment were significant parameters affecting the stability of paprika. The shelf life of paprika can be extended by storage at or below monolayer moisture content and low temperature.