Improvement of water balance in land surface schemes by random cascade disaggregation of rainfall

Lammering, Birger; Dwyer, I.J.

doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(200005)20:6<681::aid-joc492>3.0.co;2-p

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Lammering and Dwyer, 2000;Ranzi et al, 1999;Corbari et al, 2009) and the controlling effect of topography can be taken into account (Bavay et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

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Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Groppelli

Soncini

Bocchiola

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. We investigate future (2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km 2 ) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990-1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045-2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipCorrespondence to: D. Bocchiola (daniele.bocchiola@polimi.it) itation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

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“…Lammering and Dwyer, 2000;Ranzi et al, 1999;Corbari et al, 2009) and the controlling effect of topography can be taken into account (Bavay et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Gangopadhyay and Clark, 2005), and a proper tailoring is therefore required for local use before any accurate guess about hydrologic cycle can be ventured (see e.g. Lammering and Dwyer, 2000;Rosso, 1991, 2002a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Groppelli

Soncini

Bocchiola

et al. 2011

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Some of them involve assumptions of certain mathematical model behaviour justified by empirical evidence and physically-based reasoning (Lovejoy and Mandelbrot, 1985;Tessier et al, 1993;Gupta and Waymire, 1990b) while others used the cascade process empirically (Olsson, 1998;Lammering and Dwyer, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multifractal modelling and simulation of rain fields exhibiting spatial heterogeneity

Pathirana

Herath

2002

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Spatial multifractals are statistically homogeneous random fields. While being useful to model geophysical fields exhibiting a high degree of variability and discontinuity and including rainfall, they ignore the spatial trends embedded in the variability that are evident from large temporal aggregation of spatial fields. The modelling of rain fields using multifractals causes the information related to spatial heterogeneity, immensely important at some spatial scales, to be lost in the modelling process. A simple method to avoid this loss of the heterogeneity information is proposed. Instead of modelling rain fields directly as multifractals, a derived field M is modelled; this is the product of filtering observed rainfall snapshots with spatial heterogeneity as indicated by long term accumulations of rain fields. The validity of considering the field M as multifractal is investigated empirically. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated using a discrete cascade model on gauge-calibrated radar rainfall of central Japan at a daily scale. Important parameters of spatial rainfall, like the distribution of wet areas, spatial autocorrelation and rainfall intensity distributions at different geographic locations with different amounts of average rainfall, were faithfully reproduced by the proposed method.

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“…GCMs and LAMs perform reasonably well in simulating synoptic atmospheric fields, but they usually reproduce poorly historical records at the spatial scales of interest in impact analyses and proper tailoring is required for local use (Lammering and Dwyer 2000), so downscaling of GCM-based data is a key aspect in climatologically driven hydrological simulation (Lammering andDwyer 2000, Ranzi et al, 1999). Here, we investigated prospective (until 2050) hydrology within an Alpine stream of Northern Italy (Serio river closed at Grabiasca, 92 km 2 drainage area, average altitude 1900 m a.s.l, main channel length ca.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate change will affect hydrological regimes in the Alps

Confortola¹,

Soncini²,

Bocchiola³

2013

rga

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Climate change will affect hydrological cycle and water resources in the Alps. Here we sketched potential future (2045-2054) hydrological cycle under prospective climate change scenarios within an Alpine river of Italy: Serio (ca. 300 km2). Therein, hydrology is highly dependent upon snow cover cycle, very likely to be affected by climate changes. We set up and validated a hydrological model able to mimic water resources regime of the river. We then use downscaled future temperature and precipitation from two general circulation models GCMs to feed the hydrological model and obtain projected hydrological regimes, at flow sections at different altitudes within the catchment. The scenarios and storylines from the adopted GCMs differ from one another with respect to projected precipitation and temperature amount, but agree upon decrease of the former and increase of the latter. All hydrological scenarios agree upon prospective shrinkage of seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature, and upon prospective increase of Fall and Winter stream flows as due to increased liquid precipitation. Lower discharges are projected during Spring and Summer, in view of decreased rainfall and snow cover at thaw, and the CCSM3 model provides shifting of thaw season to one month earlier. Higher catchments are more impacted because Winter flows increase more proportionally. © 2013 Journal of Alpine Research

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Improvement of water balance in land surface schemes by random cascade disaggregation of rainfall

Cited by 15 publications

References 20 publications

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

Multifractal modelling and simulation of rain fields exhibiting spatial heterogeneity

Climate change will affect hydrological regimes in the Alps

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