Improvements in the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

Kurihara, Yoshio; Bender, Morris A.; Tuleya, Robert E.; Ross, Rebecca J.

doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2791:iitghp>2.0.co;2

Cited by 272 publications

(134 citation statements)

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“…Among many studies, different methods have been used to improve the initial typhoon vortex, e.g., the vortex surgery method (Kurihara et al 1993(Kurihara et al , 1995, re-implantation of the model integrated vortex (e.g., Liu et al 1997), a powerful physical initialization scheme with complementary observations (Krishnamurti et al 1993), the inclusion of a Rankine vortex in the background analysis or by assimilation of 3DVAR (Xiao et al 2006(Xiao et al , 2009Chen 2007;Chou et al 2008;Hsiao et al 2010), bogus data assimilation (BDA) using 4DVAR Zou and Xiao 2000;Pu and Braun 2001;Park and Zou 2004;Wu et al 2006), or the recently developed method using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) (e.g., Chen and Snyder 2007;Wu et al 2010a;Yen et al 2011). The insertion of a stronger vortex may help improve cyclone intensity forecasting since the model initial cyclone better captures the observed intensity and position.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Huang¹,

Wong²,

Yeh³

2011

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Moderate Typhoon Morakot (2009) became the most catastrophic typhoon in Taiwan on record. The MM5 numerical experiments with and without bogus data assimilation (BDA) were used to investigate the extreme rainfall mechanisms in Taiwan associated with the westbound typhoon. The BDA, based on 4DVAR, helps MM5 to maintain a more consolidated typhoon vortex and better predict the observed track after landfall, thus producing realistic extreme rainfall (about 2400 mm) at the southern and Central Mountain Range (CMR) of Taiwan. Severe rainfall in Taiwan is dominated by the CMR that hence modulates rainfall predictability.Model analyses indicate that the synoptic environment provides low-level preconditioning with large convective available energy (CAPE) in the southwest monsoon conveying belt in conjunction with the cyclonic Morakot. When Morakot passed slowly over north Taiwan, the developing Tropical Storm Goni, originating west of Hong Kong, facilitated the moist southwesterly flow to converge with the northerly cyclonic flow of Morakot. These processes contributed to enhanced rainfall in south Taiwan. In an experiment whereby the Goni vortex was initially deactivated by BDA, the southwesterly prevailing flow, southwest of Taiwan, weakened considerably and shifted southward at a later time, resulting in one-third reduction in total accumulated rainfall in south Taiwan. Conversely, total accumulated rainfall in Taiwan is greatly reduced when the initial Morakot vortex is deactivated. Removal of Taiwan topography results in a significant reduction in total accumulated rainfall by more than 50%, due to lack of orographic lift by the CMR.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Huang¹,

Wong²,

Yeh³

2011

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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“…First, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model was demonstrated to provide superior guidance over the other statistical and empirical techniques (Kurihara et al 1995). This regional model was subsequently modified to use the initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions from the NOGAPS model for provision of track forecast guidance in the western North Pacific and later in the Southern Hemisphere, and is referred to here as the GFDN model.…”

Section: A Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models

Boothe¹,

Elsberry²,

Carr³

et al. 2000

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“…Les modèles baroclines à aire limitée sont nettement plus complexes et restent encore des outils de recherche (Iwasaki et al, 1987 ;Mathur, 1991 ;Puri et al, 1992 ;Kurihara et al, 1995 ;Chen et al, 1995). L'un des avantages par rapport aux modèles barotropes est la possibilité de prévoir, même de façon simplifiée, les précipitations.…”

Section: Des Publications Utilesunclassified

“…Des observations synthétiques sont parfois insé-rées pour imposer au moins la position du cyclone, avec éventuellement des indications sommaires sur la taille et l'intensité, pour autant que la résolution du modèle le permette. Citons le modèle de la Japan Meteorological Agency, au Japon (Ueno et Ohnogi, 1992), celui du National Meteorological Center, aux États-Unis (Lord, 1991), celui du Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, aux États-Unis (Kurihara et al, 1995) et celui du Meteorological Office britannique (Radford et al, 1995). L'excellente résolution spectrale du modèle du CEPMMT La Météorologie 8 e série -n°18 -juin 1997 (Reading, Grande-Bretagne) permet une certaine représentation explicite des cyclones (Shun, 1992).…”

Section: Des Publications Utilesunclassified

Les cyclones tropicaux

Roux¹,

Viltard²

1997

Météorologie

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Improvements in the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

Cited by 272 publications

References 0 publications

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Extreme Rainfall Mechanisms Exhibited by Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4: Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models

Les cyclones tropicaux

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