Improvements in the Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Chan, Johnny C. L.; Shi, Jiu-En; Liu, Kin Sik

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0491:iitsfo>2.0.co;2

Cited by 89 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It has also been demonstrated that the model is capable of capturing and predicting many features of the Asian monsoon [e.g., Jia and Yang, 2013;Jiang et al, 2013aJiang et al, , 2013bLiu et al, 2013]. Incorporating with the predictors provided by the skillful CFSv2 seasonal forecasts, we here show that the hybridtype model makes significant advances on current statistical schemes used for the WNP basin [e.g., Chan et al, 2001].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 63%

“…[14] To identify the potential ANTC predictors, we select predictor variables on the basis of coefficients of spatial correlation between the ANTCs and large-scale environment from observations and CFSv2 forecasts. Previous studies have indicated that candidate variables for potential predictors are mostly limited to SSTs, VZWS, 850 hPa zonal wind, and 500 hPa geopotential height [e.g., Chan et al, 2001;Wang et al, 2009;Werner and Holbrook, 2011].…”

Section: Potential Predictor Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several statistical seasonal prediction schemes using the empirical relationships between target season TC activity and influential preceding large-scale variables have been developed and applied to operational prediction [e.g., Gray et al, 1993Gray et al, , 1994Elsner and Schmertmann, 1993;Klotzbach and Gray, 2004;Chu and Zhao, 2007]. For the WNP basin, real-time forecasts of the annual number of TCs (ANTCs) were first undertaken as an operational scheme that included predictors from the environment conditions and factors related to ENSO around 2000 [Chan et al, 1998[Chan et al, , 2001, and an updated version was established later [Chan, 2008]. Recently, new statistical schemes based on both local and remote influences were developed for predicting the frequency of intense TCs over WNP [Fan, 2007b;Fan and Wang, 2009].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Yang

Wang

et al. 2013

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific is developed based on the empirical relationship between the actual annual number of tropical cyclones (ANTCs) and the dynamical predictions of large‐scale variables by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). On interannual time scales, the ANTCs are significantly and negatively correlated with the July–October tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature, tropical western Pacific vertical zonal wind shear (WPVZWS), and subtropical Pacific geopotential height at 500 hPa (HGT500). They are also positively correlated with the zonal wind at 850 hPa over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Skillful forecasts of the above four potential predictors are made with the 24‐member ensemble predictions by the NCEP model. The two‐predictor model with the HGT500 and the WPVZWS shows the most skillful hindcasts at 0–2 month leads assessed by the leave‐one‐out cross validation for the ANTCs over the 31 year record between 1982 and 2012. The corresponding correlation coefficients and the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSEs) between the observed and hindcast ANTCs are in the ranges from 0.73 to 0.79 and from 3.11 to 2.75, respectively. Observed ANTCs during El Niño–Southern Oscillation events are generally well captured with RMSEs ranging from 3.12 to 3.04 during El Niño years and from 3.62 to 2.44 during La Niña years. The forecast skill of the model for the past 10 years (2003–2012) is competitive with the current forecast schemes. The forecast model initialized in March, May, and June 2013 suggests an inactive season for 2013, with about 22 tropical cyclones.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 63%

Section: Potential Predictor Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Yang

Wang

et al. 2013

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Efforts to predict tropical storm activity on seasonal time-scales started in the late 1970s with methods based on statistical-empirical relationships (e.g. Nicholls, 1979;Gray, 1984b;Chan et al, 1998Chan et al, , 2001. A major assumption of these methods is that the relationships between observed tropical storm activity and precursor climatic predictors, derived from historical records, still hold in the future, which is not always the case (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system

Camp

Roberts

MacLachlan

et al. 2015

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

106

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…A strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal is related to the mean location of TC formation [Chia and Ropelewski, 2002], its mean life span, mean number of TC occurrence [Wang and Chan, 2002;Camargo and Sobel, 2005], TC landfalling activity [Wu et al, 2004] and mean recurvature area of TC track [Camargo et al, 2007a]. The index of ENSO has been used as one of predictors for seasonal forecasts of TC activity in various basins [Chan et al, 1998[Chan et al, , 2001Camargo et al, 2007b]. However, in the western North Pacific (WNP), whether variations in TC activity (TC numbers and intensity) are a part of the large interdecadal variability [Chan, 2006] or due to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) [Webster et al, 2006] has not been resolved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content

Wada¹,

Chan²

2008

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A 44‐year mean distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), a measure of the oceanic heat content from the surface to the 26°C‐isotherm depth, shows that TCHP is locally high in the western North Pacific (WNP). TCHP varies on interannual time scales and has a relationship with tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The third mode of an empirical orthogonal function analysis of TCHP shows that an increase in the total number of TCs is accompanied with a warm central Pacific and cool WNP. Negative TCHP anomalies in the WNP suggest that an increase in total number of TCs results in cooling due to their passages. On the other hand, the first mode shows that the number of super typhoons increases in mature El Niño years. An increase in accumulated TCHP is related to the increase in the number of super typhoons due to long duration.

show abstract

Improvements in the Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Cited by 89 publications

References 22 publications

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system

Relationship between typhoon activity and upper ocean heat content

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About