2023
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0273.1
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IMPROVER: The New Probabilistic Postprocessing System at the Met Office

Abstract: The Met Office in the UK has developed a completely new probabilistic post-processing system called IMPROVER to operate on outputs from its operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and precipitation nowcasts. The aim is to improve weather forecast information to the public and other stakeholders whilst better exploiting the current and future generations of underpinning kilometer-scale NWP ensembles. We wish to provide seamless forecasts from nowcasting to medium range, provide consistency betw… Show more

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Cited by 19 publications
(17 citation statements)
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“…Furthermore, due to the smooth nature of the field, neighborhoods would have limited impacts (e.g., Mittermaier, 2014). However, it is acknowledged that there still remains research into what a “representative” temperature in a neighborhood means (e.g., Roberts et al, 2023) and so could be an important future avenue of investigation.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Furthermore, due to the smooth nature of the field, neighborhoods would have limited impacts (e.g., Mittermaier, 2014). However, it is acknowledged that there still remains research into what a “representative” temperature in a neighborhood means (e.g., Roberts et al, 2023) and so could be an important future avenue of investigation.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The non-parametric nature of Reliability Calibration makes it attractive for a range of diagnostics, including temperature, if combined with other simple calibration techniques such as those applied here. Reliability Calibration was implemented using IMPROVER (Roberts et al, 2022), an open-source codebase developed by the Met Office and collaborators.…”
Section: Reliability Calibration (Rc)mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…February and March sample occurrences of frontal precipitation and cloud in wintery regimes, whilst June and July sample convective events. MOGREPS-UK and MOGREPS-G forecasts are provided on standard grids, rather than the raw model grid, see further details in Roberts et al (2023), for usage in all systems that post-process model output. To create a seamless forecast across lead times, MOGREPS-G forecasts are nearest neighbour interpolated onto the UK standard grid to match the MOGREPS-UK forecasts, which is a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area grid with a 2 km horizontal resolution.…”
Section: Datasetsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To create a seamless forecast across lead times, MOGREPS‐G forecasts are nearest neighbour interpolated onto the UK standard grid to match the MOGREPS‐UK forecasts, which is a Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area grid with a 2 km horizontal resolution. The forecasts then undergo a series of IMPROVER post‐processing steps (Roberts et al, 2023) prior to Reliability Calibration. Probability forecasts are created by computing the proportion of ensemble members that have exceeded each threshold for a pre‐defined set of thresholds; these ensembles comprise 3 and 18 members for MOGREPS‐UK and MOGREPS‐G, respectively.…”
Section: Datamentioning
confidence: 99%
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