Improving Agent-Based Simulation of Major Incident Response in the United Kingdom through Conceptual and Operational Validation

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to report on how the credibility of an agent-based model (ABM) of the United Kingdom emergency services' response to major incidents has been improved through a process of conceptual validation, and how the ABM's software implementation has been improved through a process of operational validation. Validating the authors' ABM and its implementation contributes towards the long term goal of agent-based modelling and simulation being accepted by emergency planning officers as a means of performing emergency exercises thus playing a useful role in emergency preparedness. Both conceptual and operational validation led to the identification of potential improvements, which when implemented resulted in the authors' ABM software simulating the response to major incidents in the UK more realistically than was possible previously.

Creating realistic nerve agent victim profiles for computer simulation of medical CBRN disaster response

“…In contrast to discussion-based, tabletop or live exercises, computer modeling, and simulation can enhance disaster preparedness by studying all operational assumptions and testing contingency plans in a virtual but controlled experimental environment. Simulation allows the integration of stochastic and dynamic aspects inherent to the health disaster response and to study possible relationships among any or all variables included in the scenario (4,5). Computer-generated victims can be created with vital parameters that are realistic for their injuries and with a randomly allocated severity of injuries based on probabilities for the different triage classes (6,7).…”