Improving Australian Commercial Property Market Forecasting by Mapping Structural Changes in Built Environment

Abstract

Property market forecasting is an integral element of decisionmaking. It is critical that property analysts employ a wide -range of models and techniques for property forecasting. These models have one overriding aim of predicting reasonable estimates of key dependent variables (demand, supply, rent, yield, vacancy and net absorption) based on the independent variables of core economic activities. However, a broad-fronted social, economic, technical, political and ecological evolution can throw up sudden, unexpected shocks that result in a possibility of sceptical to unknown risk factors. These structural changes decrease, even eliminate predictability of property market performance. Hence, forecasting beyond econometrics is raised as the research problem in this study. This study follows a qualitative research approach, conducting semi-structured interviews with open-ended questions.