Improving Construction Project Schedules before Execution

Fitzsimmons, John; Hong, Yuling; Brilakis, Ioannis

doi:10.22260/isarc2020/0157

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The MC method allows for certain assumptions about the distribution of time offsets in specific stages of the project. For example, triangular distributions can be assumed instead of PERT distributions for short phases such as the realisation of the opportunity study (OS) or for the conceptual phase (CONC), while Weibull distributions can be used for the other longer implementation stages (such as the arrangement stage and execution of construction documentation [ASECD], or the project implementation stage [PIS]), as they are inherently characterised by fat tails on the right (and thin tails on the left) side of their distributions [67,86]. According to Abdelkader [86], the variation in the duration of activities/processes is best described by a Weibull distribution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Naturally, researchers polemicize on this issue. Some justify the superiority of Weibull distributions [67,86]. Without going into special details, we choose PERT-distributions since they are easier to implement in the R package and they give the possibility to individually define the extremes and the most likely value (i.e., mode), which has already been defined for the Fort Bema project (see Tables 2 and 3).…”

Section: Time-at-risk (Tar) and Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex

Sobieraj

Metelski

2022

Applied Sciences

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In this article, we present our own construction process model consisting of 16 stages and eight phases, which is particularly applicable to large investment projects. In the context of each project phase, we examine how the appropriate way of scheduling construction processes affects the problem of the risk of prolonging individual phases and the whole project, as well as of not meeting deadlines (which is one of the main problems faced by management practitioners in the construction industry). There are many methods for assessing risk in this context, but they tend to be overly complex and rarely used by construction practitioners. On the other hand, the risks associated with potential schedule delays can be considered holistically. One tool that can serve this purpose is the combined Monte Carlo simulation and Time-at-Risk (TaR) approach, which originates from the world of finance. We show how the implementation of the process model (individual phases) and the whole project can be considered in the context of the covariance matrix between all its phases and how changes in the arrangement of these phases can affect the risk of time extension of the whole project. Our study is based on simulation data for a large development project (Fort Bema/Parkowo-Leśne housing estate complex) in Bemowo, a district of Warsaw, carried out between 1999 and 2012. The entire investment project involved the construction of almost 120,000 m2 of floor space.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Time-at-risk (Tar) and Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex

Sobieraj

Metelski

2022

Applied Sciences

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Advantages and Limitations of Bayesian Approaches to Decision-Making in Construction Management: A Critical Review (1988–2023)

Mejía,

Gutiérrez-Prada,

Portilla-Carreño

et al. 2024

ASCE-ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Eng. Syst., Part A: Civ. Eng.

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Applying Game Theory to Teach the PERT Scheduling Method

Forcael,

Contreras,

Francesconi

et al. 2024

Applied Sciences

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This research focuses on applying Game Theory to teach the PERT scheduling method to civil engineering students. The work was carried out with students from the Construction Planning and Scheduling course, who were given face-to-face classes on Game Theory applied to teaching the PERT method. This proposal considers that gamification plays a role in user engagement, while Game Theory contributes to data analysis and decision strategies. It began with an initial pre-test evaluation consisting of questions classified by items and evaluation criteria to teach the PERT method using Game Theory, followed by a post-test and a quantitative evaluation that allowed to know the perception and interests of the students. Using Game Theory principles in teaching the PERT method demonstrated improvements in students. In addition, the results presented statistically significant differences in favor of using Game Theory, which would allow it to be proposed as a viable option for teaching PERT and other scheduling methods.

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Improving Construction Project Schedules before Execution

Cited by 4 publications

References 34 publications

Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex

Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex

Advantages and Limitations of Bayesian Approaches to Decision-Making in Construction Management: A Critical Review (1988–2023)

Applying Game Theory to Teach the PERT Scheduling Method

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