Improving predictions of rock tunnel squeezing with ensemble Q-learning and online Markov chain

Abstract

Predicting rock tunnel squeezing in underground projects is challenging due to its intricate and unpredictable nature. This study proposes an innovative approach to enhance the accuracy and reliability of tunnel squeezing prediction. The proposed method combines ensemble learning techniques with Q-learning and online Markov chain integration. A deep learning model is trained on a comprehensive database comprising tunnel parameters including diameter (D), burial depth (H), support stiffness (K), and tunneling quality index (Q). Multiple deep learning models are trained concurrently, leveraging ensemble learning to capture diverse patterns and improve prediction performance. Integration of the Q-learning-Online Markov Chain further refines predictions. The online Markov chain analyzes historical sequences of tunnel parameters and squeezing class transitions, establishing transition probabilities between different squeezing classes. The Q-learning algorithm optimizes decision-making by learning the optimal policy for transitioning between tunnel states. The proposed model is evaluated using a dataset from various tunnel construction projects, assessing performance through metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Results demonstrate the efficiency of the ensemble deep learning model combined with Q-learning-Online Markov Chain in predicting surrounding rock tunnel squeezing. This approach offers insights into parameter interrelationships and dynamic squeezing characteristics, enabling proactive planning and support measures implementation to mitigate tunnel squeezing hazards and ensure underground structure safety. Experimental results show the model achieves a prediction accuracy of 98.11%, surpassing individual CNN and RNN models, with an AUC value of 0.98. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-024-72998-5.