Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales.

Abstract

The study compared the predictive accuracy of three sex offender risk-assessment measures: the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), Thornton’s SACJ-Min (Grubin, 1998), and a new scale, Static-99, created by combining the items from the RRASOR and SACJMin. Predictive accuracy was tested using four diverse datasets drawn from Canada and the United Kingdom (total n = 1301). The RRASOR and the SACJ-Min showed roughly equivalent predictive accuracy, and the combination of the two scales was more accurate than either original scale. Static-99 showed moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual recidivism (r = 0.33, ROC area = 0.71) and violent (including sexual) recidivism (r = 0.32, ROC area = 0.69). The variation in the predictive accuracy of Static-99 across the four samples was no more than would be expected by chance.

Sexually Violent Predator Evaluations: Empirical Evidence, Strategies for Professionals, and Research Directions.

“…The authors conclude, "offender type should play an important role in determining the course of risk assessment" (Bartosh et al, 2003, p. 436). Although these results contradict previous reports of no sexual offender type differences in actuarial prediction (e.g., Hanson & Thornton, 2000;Sjostedt & Langstrom, 2001) and are limited because of small sample sizes, further research is warranted examining possible group differences and risk prediction.…”

The Adolescence–Adulthood Transition and Desistance from Crime: Examining the Underlying Structure of Desistance

“…The findings reported in Table 4 are based on the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator [36]. Also, all survival analyses conducted in the study included inspection of both the KaplanMeier estimator and the Cox proportional hazard estimates [14], the two most commonly used estimators in criminal recidivism research (e.g., [27,70]). There were minor non-significant differences between parameter estimates from the two methods examined.…”

The Criminal Activity of Sexual Offenders in Adulthood: Revisiting the Specialization Debate

“…Although much controversy surrounded the evaluation of treatment effectiveness (Alexander, 1999;Hall, 1995;Marshall & Pithers, 1994;Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Lalumière, 1993), many efforts were made to develop the risk management of sexual offenders. These efforts led to the identification of risk factors associated with sexual recidivism , as well as the emergence of various risk assessment scales designed specifically for sexual offenders (Boer, Hart, Kropp, & Webster, 1997;Hanson, 1997;Hanson & Thornton, 1999;Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998). At the same time, legal dispositions were introduced, such as the "Sexual Predator Laws" in the United States (Lieb, Quinsey, & Berliner, 1998) and the "Dangerous Offender Legislation" in Canada (Petrunik, 2003).…”