Improving Spatiotemporal Breast Cancer Assessment and Prediction in Hangzhou City, China

Abstract

Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of death of female cancer patients in China. Mainstream mapping techniques, like spatiotemporal ordinary kriging (STOK), generate disease incidence maps that improve our understanding of disease distribution. Yet, the implementation of these techniques experiences substantive and technical complications (due mainly to the different characteristics of space and time). A new spatiotemporal projection (STP) technique that is free of the above complications was implemented to model the space-time distribution of BC incidence in Hangzhou city and to estimate incidence values at locations-times for which no BC data exist. For comparison, both the STP and the STOK techniques were used to generate BC incidence maps in Hangzhou. STP performed considerably better than STOK in terms of generating more accurate incidence maps showing a closer similarity to the observed incidence distribution, and providing an improved assessment of the space-time BC correlation structure. In sum, the inter-connections between space, time, BC incidence and spread velocity established by STP allow a more realistic representation of the actual incidence distribution, and generate incidence maps that are more accurate and more informative, at a lower computational cost and involving fewer approximations than the incidence maps produced by mainstream space-time techniques.

The Characteristics Comparison of Breast Cancer Patients in Southern China and America: A Multicentre Study in China Versus SEER Database

“…It is reported that, the incidence of BC in China is expending at twice the rate of the world, which has risen from 23.37/10 million in 2007 to 28.42/10 million in 2013 [5,6]. In addition, there are researches showed that the incidence rate of breast cancer is increasing in China, and it may reach 2 million 500 thousand cases by 2021, however, .its survival rate is low, the 5-year survival rate ranged from 40-60% [7,8] . Furthermore, there are obvious regional differences in the mortality of BC in China.…”

The Comparison of Breast Cancer in Southern China and America: A Multicentre Study in China Versus SEER Database

“…However, there are literatures showed that the mortality of BC in high-income countries is declining, while it is increasing in low and middle income countries [4].It is reported that, the incidence of BC in China is expending at twice the rate of the world, which has risen from 23.37/10 million in 2007 to 28.42/10 million in 2013 [5, 6]. In addition, there are researches showed that the incidence rate of breast cancer is increasing in China, and it may reach 2 million 500 thousand cases by 2021, however, .its survival rate is low, the 5-year survival rate ranged from 40-60% [7, 8] . Furthermore, there are obvious regional differences in the mortality of BC in China.…”

The Comparison of Breast Cancer in Southern China and America: a Multicentre Study in China Versus SEER Database

“…It is reported that, the incidence of BC in China is expending at twice the rate of the world, which has risen from 23.37/10 million in 2007 to 28.42/10 million in 2013 [5,6]. In addition, there are researches showed that the incidence rate of breast cancer is increasing in China, and it may reach 2 million 500 thousand cases by 2021, however, .its survival rate is low, the 5-year survival rate ranged from 40% to 60% [7,8].…”