Improving Sports Media’s Crystal Ball for National Basketball Association Playoff Elimination

Abstract

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is divided into two conferences, each of which comprises 15 teams. At the end of the regular season, the top eight teams from each conference, based on winning percentage, compete in the playoffs. Mixed-integer-programming (MIP) models determine when a team has guaranteed its position in the playoffs (clinched) or, conversely, when it has been eliminated before the completion of the regular season. Our models incorporate a series of complex two-way tiebreaking criteria used by the NBA to determine how many more games are needed either to clinch or to avoid elimination. We compare the time at which a given team has clinched or been eliminated, in terms of the number of games played in the season to date, as posted in the NBA official standings, against results from our mixed-integer program. For the 2017–2018 season, when our models outperform those of the NBA, they do so by an average of 4.1 games. We also describe a scenario in which the NBA erroneously reported that the Boston Celtics had clinched a playoff spot and, conversely, show that the Golden State Warriors had clinched a playoff spot before the official announcement by the NBA.