Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

McCollum, David; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Bertram, Christoph; Lin, Zhenhong; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Fujisawa, Sei

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.04.003

Cited by 178 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Consistent with the literature addressing demand-side issues in the domain of climate mitigation Lucon et al 2014;Sims et al 2014), Gota et al underline that not only do optimistic mitigation scenarios require greater behavioral change but also that mitigation potential due to behavioral options may be higher than is often assumed in modeling studies (see also Creutzig 2016). In line with the literature that addresses human behavior, climate mitigation, and modeling tools (e.g., Jochem et al 2000;McCollum et al 2017;Mundaca et al 2010), the papers in the special issue implicitly (or explicitly) acknowledge the challenges associated with the parameterization of behavioral change in modeling tools. Moberg et al (2018) devote considerable attention to behavior and policy.…”

Section: Behavioral Policiesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Mundaca

Ürge-Vorsatz²,

Wilson

2018

Energy Efficiency

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The Paris Climate Agreement defined an ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This has triggered research on stringent emission reduction targets and corresponding mitigation pathways across energy economy and societal systems. Driven by methodological considerations, supply side and carbon dioxide removal options feature prominently in the emerging pathway literature, while much less attention has been given to the role of demand-side approaches. This special issue addresses this gap, and aims to broaden and strengthen the knowledge base in this key research and policy area. This editorial paper synthesizes the special issue's contributions horizontally through three shared themes we identify: policy interventions, demand-side measures, and methodological approaches. The review of articles is supplemented by insights from other relevant literature. Overall, our paper underlines that stringent demand-side policy portfolios are required to drive the pace and direction of deep decarbonization pathways and keep the 1.5°C target within reach. It confirms that insufficient attention has been paid to demand-side measures, which are found to be inextricably linked to supply-side decarbonization and able to complement supply-side measures. The paper also shows that there is an abundance of demand-side measures to limit warming to 1.5°C, but it warns that not all of these options are Bseen^or captured by current quantitative tools or progress indicators, and some remain insufficiently represented in the current policy discourse. Based on the set of papers presented in the special issue, we conclude that demand-side mitigation in line with the 1.5°C goal is possible; however, it remains enormously challenging and dependent on both innovative technologies and policies, and behavioral change. Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires, more than ever, a plurality of methods and integrated behavioral and technology approaches to better support policymaking and resulting policy interventions.

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Section: Behavioral Policiesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Mundaca

Ürge-Vorsatz²,

Wilson

2018

Energy Efficiency

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“…Issues such as artificiallylow fuel prices and information gaps affect the behavior of individuals and prevent them from choosing lower-carbon options when it comes to transport. McCollum et al (2017) demonstrated approaches for improved representation of human behavior in models of transportation choice. Further linkages of behavioral aspects of traveler choices, and the geographical and societal factors that influence them, could be integrated into LUTMs, and would give a greater insight into the potential for rapid transitions toward low-carbon travel.…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Ford

Dawson

Blythe

et al. 2018

JTLU

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Abstract:The adoption of the Paris Agreement has committed the world to limiting anthropogenic climate change to 2°C above preindustrial levels, adapting to climate risks, and fostering climate resilience. Given the high proportion of global emissions released by cities and the concentration of people living in urban areas, this will require an unprecedented reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and transformation of the built environment on a yet unparalleled timescale. This poses substantial challenges for urban land-use and transport planning and for the use of land-use transport models (LUTM), which have historically been developed to test incremental changes rather than the rapid transformations implied by the Paris Agreement. This paper sets out the need for a new generation of tools to support the planning of a transition toward a low-carbon and resilient future, arguing that land-use and transport modeling tools are crucial to support this process. Recent developments in urban integrated assessment that link models of land-use and transport with other environmental models of greenhouse gas emissions and climate hazards show promise as platforms to assess the potential of urban policies in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.The paper concludes by defining challenges for the LUTM community if it is to achieve these goals. Crucial will be the adoption of new modeling approaches to better represent rapid social and technological change and to concurrently assess the resilience and sustainability implications of different land-use and transport policies. Simple models to explore multiple scenarios of change must be integrated with more sophisticated models for detailed design. Collaborative approaches will be necessary to allow multiple stakeholders to use these tools to explore urban futures and design radical urban transitions across multiple and interdependent urban sectors.

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“…Indeed, in E3 models, behavioral and infrastructure options cannot easily be operationalized through monetary costs and are entangled with quality of life, norms, and cultural values [36]. Behavior and the end use of energy are represented as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, though recent tentative to improve behavioral realism of energy consumer in the transport sector [37].…”

Section: The Modelling Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low Carbon Scenarios for Europe: An Evaluation of Upscaling Low Carbon Experiments

et al. 2018

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This paper focuses on transformational processes in a post Paris agreement context. It uses IMACLIM-R, an E3 (Environment-Energy-Economy) model allowing for the integration of urban forms, transport dynamics, environmental policies and behaviors. Building upon the study of a set of local low carbon experiments throughout the European Union (EU), the paper explores two contrasted stylized scenarios of the low carbon transition in Europe. It highlights that carbon pricing policies are useful guides for transition but cannot achieve the ambitious objective without significant transition costs. It shows that low carbon experiments in the transport and energy sectors are critical dimensions of complementary measures in favor of green infrastructures. Broadening and upscaling low carbon experiments helps overcome the inertias of the transport sector by fostering radical changes in infrastructures, thereby introducing deep transformations in mobility behavior. This can then generate positive macroeconomic outcomes, even though they are also dependent on specific financial support, calling for a renegotiation of the social contract based on specific fiscal reforms and measures to secure funding for these initiatives. The paper concludes with some research avenues for improving this preliminary work and calls for a better understanding of the complexity of the socio-economic patterns of both the transition and the conditions for an effective implementation.

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Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

Cited by 178 publications

References 65 publications

Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Demand-side approaches for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning

Low Carbon Scenarios for Europe: An Evaluation of Upscaling Low Carbon Experiments

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