Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process

Belton, Ian; MacDonald, Alice; Wright, George; Hamlin, Iain

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002

Cited by 278 publications

(321 citation statements)

References 97 publications

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“…For rigorous data collection in our study, we followed the four classical Delphi characteristics: (1) iteration, (2) anonymity, (3) controlled feedback, and (4) statistical summary of group feedback (Landeta et al 2011; Belton et al 2019). Following the approach presented by Kisgen (2017), the first step in the data collection process was to select a suitable real‐time (RT) Delphi software tool (Figure 2).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digitalization and its Impact on the Future Role of SCM Executives in Talent Management – An International Cross‐Industry Delphi Study

Wehrle

Lechler

Gracht

et al. 2020

J of Business Logistics

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Business and EntrepreneurshipOpen access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. I n the field of supply chain management (SCM), attracting and developing appropriate talent is critical for achieving most SCM goals, as extensive skills are necessary to do the job properly. In order to ensure that future-proof talent can continue to emerge in this discipline, the role of SCM executives is extremely important. Although many studies have been conducted in the field of talent management (TM), the future role of SCM executives has been mostly neglected in research. The present empirical study addresses this gap, taking into consideration the fourth industrial revolution, as innovation in technology continues to drive significant changes in the SCM field. Aiming to investigate the extent to which increasing digitalization is influencing the future role of SCM executives, a Delphi study with 103 experts from industry, academics, and politics/associations was carried out. In order to identify meaningful topic clusters from the data, fuzzy c-means clustering was used. From an actor-network theory perspective, our results show that in some areas of TM, digitalization is leading to a strong fusion of SCM executives and digital technologies, as well as to a clear division of roles, in which either SCM leaders or technology will dominate in the future.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digitalization and its Impact on the Future Role of SCM Executives in Talent Management – An International Cross‐Industry Delphi Study

Wehrle

Lechler

Gracht

et al. 2020

J of Business Logistics

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“…We used an online, four-round Delphi study methodology, ideal for integrating the perspectives of multiple stakeholders ( Hasson et al, 2000 ), with feedback managed by a moderator at all stages ( Trevelyan & Robinson, 2015 ). The Delphi study methodology was selected as it has been proposed to be more effective for group-based judgement and decision-making than traditional group meetings by both increasing a group’s access to multiple interpretations and views and decreasing the negative features of group discussions such as domineering individuals and opinions ( Belton et al, 2019 ; Hasson et al, 2000 ; Rowe & Wright, 2001 ; see also Humphrey-Murto & de Wit, 2019 ). The Delphi methodology was therefore chosen as an ideal format for systematically capturing and integrating opinion from a diverse group of experts, who were not co-located and remained anonymous from each other ( Goodman, 1987 ; Hsu & Sandford, 2007 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework of evidence-based practice for digital support, co-developed with and for the autism community

Zervogianni

Fletcher‐Watson

Herrera

et al. 2020

Autism

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A wide array of digital supports (such as apps) have been developed for the autism community, many of which have little or no evidence to support their effectiveness. A Delphi study methodology was used to develop a consensus on what constitutes good evidence for digital supports among the broader autism community, including autistic people and their families, as well as autism-related professionals and researchers. A four-phase Delphi study consultation with 27 panel members resulted in agreement on three categories for which evidence is required: reliability, engagement and effectiveness of the technology. Consensus was also reached on four key sources of evidence for these three categories: hands-on experience, academic sources, expert views and online reviews. These were differentially weighted as sources of evidence within these three categories. Lay abstract Digital supports are any type of technologies that have been intentionally developed to improve daily living in some way. A wide array of digital supports (such as apps) have been developed for the autism community specifically, but there is little or no evidence of whether they work or not. This study sought to identify what types of evidence the autistic community valued and wanted to see provided to enable an informed choice to be made regarding digital supports. A consensus was developed between autistic people and their families, practitioners (such as therapists and teachers) as well as researchers, to identify the core aspects of evidence that everyone agreed were useful. In all, 27 people reached agreement on three categories for which evidence is required: reliability, engagement and the effectiveness of the technology. Consensus was also reached on four key sources of evidence for these three categories: hands-on experience, academic sources, expert views and online reviews. The resulting framework allows for any technology to be evaluated for the level of evidence identifying how effective it is. The framework can be used by autistic people, their families, practitioners and researchers to ensure that decisions concerning the provision of support for autistic people is informed by evidence, that is, ‘evidence-based practice’.

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“…As shown in Figure 4, the specific operation of the Delphi method can be based on the following steps of the flow chart, and feedback should be given at least three times in the feedback phase, generally three to five times [38], until the experts reach a consensus.…”

Section: Delphi Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Network-Based Risk Assessment of Single-Phase Grounding Accidents of Power Transmission Lines

Zhang

Bian

Zhao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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With the increasing demand for electricity transmission and distribution, single-phase grounding accidents, which cause great economic losses and casualties, have occurred frequently. In this study, a Bayesian network (BN)-based risk assessment model for representing single-phase grounding accidents is proposed to examine accident evolution from causes to potential consequences. The Bayesian network of single-phase grounding accidents includes 21 nodes that take into account the influential factors of environment, management, equipment and human error. The Bow-tie method was employed to build the accident evolution path and then converted to a BN. The BN conditional probability tables are determined with reference to historical accident data and expert opinion obtained by the Delphi method. The probability of a single-phase grounding accident and its potential consequences in normal conditions and three typical accident scenarios are analyzed. We found that “Storm” is the most critical hazard of single-phase grounding, followed by “Aging” and “Icing”. This study could quantitatively evaluate the single-phase grounding accident in multi-hazard coupling scenarios and provide technical support for occupational health and safety management of power transmission lines.

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Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: A six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process

Cited by 278 publications

References 97 publications

Digitalization and its Impact on the Future Role of SCM Executives in Talent Management – An International Cross‐Industry Delphi Study

Digitalization and its Impact on the Future Role of SCM Executives in Talent Management – An International Cross‐Industry Delphi Study

A framework of evidence-based practice for digital support, co-developed with and for the autism community

Bayesian Network-Based Risk Assessment of Single-Phase Grounding Accidents of Power Transmission Lines

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