The article analyzes the dynamics of the gross regional product and investments in the agricultural sector of the Kursk region, identifies the directions of the industry's future development. The Keynesian theory is used to calculate the investment multiplier in agriculture in the region. Substantiates the conclusion about a high level of return on investment and the possibility of transition to the implementation of an innovative and investment scenario for the development of agriculture. The problems of growth are associated with the prospect of the country falling into the middle-income trap, when economic growth in the country, upon reaching a certain per capita GDP, slows down or stops. The necessity of the development of the agrarian industry based on an innovation and investment model, aimed both at introducing innovations into production, and at attracting investments and improving the investment climate, with the simultaneous development of export potential, has been substantiated. A model of conceptual changes in the development strategy of the agrarian industry in Russia is proposed, considering the proposed recommendations. It is concluded that it is necessary to move from resourcedriven growth, which depends on cheap labor and capital, to growth based on high productivity and innovation. The article substantiates the role of the education system, which should encourage creativity and provide training for breakthrough development in science and technology, as well as the importance of implementing appropriate institutional changes.