Improving Visual Communication of Weather Forecasts with Rhetoric

Abstract

Communicating weather-related hazards to the public can be a challenge for meteorologists, particularly given the nature of confidence levels in forecasting science. Despite these challenges, communicating high-impact weather remains extremely important because it has implications for the safety, health, and resilience of impacted communities. Because the dynamics of this issue are complex, solutions to weather hazard communication benefit from interdisciplinary solutions and multiple types of expertise. Our work demonstrates how rhetoric, a foundational communication discipline, can be applied to improving weather forecast communication. Applying a rhetorical framework allows the identification of communication strategies that not only invite public involvement but encourage users to act as conduits for weather information distribution. As a result, trust can be developed between the National Weather Service (NWS) and public audiences. The initial results support the hypothesis that effective public communication from NWS messaging can be improved by incorporating the concept of “commonplaces,” which are the expressions of beliefs, values, and norms that construct community attitudes toward weather or natural hazard forecasts, into visual communication techniques such as NWS Weather Stories.

Identifying community values related to heat: recommendations for forecast and health risk communication

“…Following Lambrecht et al (2019), we inductively coded each of the 4,304 public comments according to how they functioned as a response to heat-related NWS Facebook posts (see also Walsh and Ross 2015). In total, we identified thirteen codes (i.e., different categories of function): (1) feelings or reactions shared in response to an NWS Facebook post, (2) tags linking the name of a person to a post to draw their attention to it, (3) verifications, or sharing information that confirms or refutes a forecast, (4) comparisons differentiating weather in Phoenix from another location, (5) questions asking about heat impacts, (6) commentaries exploring the political context of heat, (7) past experiences or sharing stories about heat, ( 8) appeals to safety or warning other members of the public about heat, (9) information sharing (e.g., about resources), ( 10) changes in plans indicating that weather played a role in modifying activity, (11) thank yous expressing appreciation for NWS, ( 12) advice sharing between members of the public, and ( 13) requests asking for additional weather information or changes in weather (Table 1).…”

“…Simply cautioning a public that prides itself on withstanding the dangers of heat therefore may not work to convince people that they are truly at risk and should adopt behavioral changes to keep themselves safe. Rather, carefully drawing on and possibly reframing signals of community membership as conveyed in public posts may offer benefits for encouraging acceptance of risk and enactment of protective behavior (see also Lambrecht et al 2019). For example, reframing heat safety as a community norm, or communicating that protection against heat builds a stronger community, could be potentially effective ways to utilize sense of belonging to encourage safety.…”

“…The identification of "commonplaces" (referred to as topoi in the field of rhetoric, originating in the work of Aristotle) offers one approach for building place-based nuance into risk communication. Commonplaces are the underlying norms, beliefs, and values that influence the way audiences respond to information (Walsh and Boyle 2017), including about weather and safety (Lambrecht et al 2019). The identification of commonplaces therefore enables communicators of risk to acquire important rhetorical awareness of their unique target audiences (Walsh and Boyle 2017) and better tailor their communication for increased effectiveness, for example by presenting content framed specifically within local norms and values (Lambrecht et al 2019; see Chowdhury et al 2012).…”

“…Commonplaces are the underlying norms, beliefs, and values that influence the way audiences respond to information (Walsh and Boyle 2017), including about weather and safety (Lambrecht et al 2019). The identification of commonplaces therefore enables communicators of risk to acquire important rhetorical awareness of their unique target audiences (Walsh and Boyle 2017) and better tailor their communication for increased effectiveness, for example by presenting content framed specifically within local norms and values (Lambrecht et al 2019; see Chowdhury et al 2012). As the identification of commonplaces is a practice grounded in analyzing language, the method can be applied to any technical or risk communication (Harlow 2015).…”

“…Our findings confirm perceptions held within the NWS Forecast Office Phoenix and offer insights into how communicators of heat risk might leverage commonplaces to tailor the content and timing of messages for increased effectiveness. The methods utilized offer a replicable approach for communicators of heat risk in any location, or of different weather and climate-related hazards (e.g., winter weather; Lambrecht et al 2019), to acquire the nuanced understanding of public knowledge and beliefs encouraged for closing messenger-receiver knowledge gaps (see Chowdhury et al 2011).…”