Improving wheat productivity reveals an emerging yield gap associated with short-term change in atmospheric humidity

Shimoda, Süsumu; Terasawa, Yohei; Nishio, Zenta

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108710

Cited by 14 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Barnabás et al 2008). Although some studies have reported that yield loss is attributable to continuous precipitation around flowering and corresponding pollination failure (Shimoda et al 2022, Nóia Júnior et al 2023), no widely used model or index has been developed to assess this effect. While a certain amount and duration of precipitation are prerequisites for preharvest sprouting, it has been reported that sprouting only occurs when seeds are sprouting suspicious with reduced dormancy level (Mares and Mrva 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, shifts in wheat phenology in conjunction with changes in summer precipitation patterns could decrease grain productivity and quality. Pollination failure due to precipitation at the time of flowering (Shimoda et al 2022, Nóia Júnior et al 2023) and preharvest sprouting as a result of precipitation around the harvesting (Mares and Mrva 2014) are both known risk factors for winter wheat production associated with precipitation. Although these risks have attracted less attention in major wheat producing areas with dry climates, and since no widely used model or index has been developed to assess these risks, they have been a major concern in wheat production in humid environments, such as Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing climate change risks associated with precipitation at unfavorable times in winter wheat using an improved crop calendar model incorporating vernalization and winter survival

Murakami,

Iizumi,

Shimoda

2023

Preprint

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Crop phenology calendars are necessary for designing breeding goals and for developing effective management practices. Winter wheat is a representative biennial, the cultivation schedule of which is constrained by winter climate conditions, particularly the processes of vernalization and winter survival. Here, we present improvements to a rule-based crop phenology model by incorporating these factors so that it can be used to accurately estimate the phenological events of winter wheat from daily meteorological data. We tested the improved model in Hokkaido, the northernmost Japanese island, which is characterized by seasonal snow cover and a wet summer. The results confirmed that implementing these factors contributed to accurate estimates of peak occurrence dates of winter wheat phenological events. Furthermore, we applied the improved model to simulate wheat phenology under 2 K and 4 K warmer scenarios. The results showed a delayed sowing period up to approximately one month and slight advancements in both flowering and harvesting, leading to a shorter growth period. While this shortened period may be largely compensated by a decrease in the snow-covered period, the shifts in the vegetative and reproductive phases may have a significant influence on sink-source balance of wheat. We also assessed the risks of pollination failure and preharvest sprouting, both of which are associated with the timing of precipitation, based on the number of rainy days around flowering, and the incidence of precipitation over two consecutive days around the time of harvesting. Our simulations suggested increased risk of pollination failure and reduced risk of preharvest sprouting, leading to an increase in the probability of crop failure. These findings underscore the importance of implementing adaptive measures to mitigate precipitation-related risk under future climate scenarios. Further, the findings provide valuable insights for winter wheat breeders and agronomists, thereby facilitating crop production adaptation strategies.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing climate change risks associated with precipitation at unfavorable times in winter wheat using an improved crop calendar model incorporating vernalization and winter survival

Murakami,

Iizumi,

Shimoda

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved crop calendar model for winter wheat incorporating vernalization and winter survival to project changes in phenology

Murakami,

Iizumi,

Shimoda

2024

Environ. Res.: Food Syst.

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Crop phenology and associated crop calendars are necessary for designing breeding goals and for developing effective management practices. Winter wheat is a representative biennial, the cultivation schedule of which is constrained by winter climate conditions, particularly the processes of vernalization and winter survival. Here, we present improvements to a rule-based crop calendar model by incorporating these factors so that it can be used to accurately estimate the phenological events of winter wheat from daily meteorological data. We tested the improved model in Hokkaido, the northernmost Japanese island, which is characterized by seasonal snow cover and a wet summer. The results confirmed that implementing these factors contributed to accurate estimates of peak occurrence dates of winter wheat phenological events. Furthermore, we applied the improved model to simulate wheat phenology under 2 K and 4 K warmer scenarios. The results showed a delayed sowing period up to approximately one month and slight advancements in both flowering and harvesting, leading to a shorter growth period. While this shortened period may be largely compensated by a decrease in the snow-covered period, the shifts in the vegetative and reproductive phases may modify sink-source balance of wheat. We also assessed the risks of pollination failure and preharvest sprouting, both of which are associated with the timing of precipitation, based on the number of rainy days around flowering, and the incidence of precipitation over two consecutive days around the time of harvesting. Our simulations suggested increased risk of pollination failure and reduced risk of preharvest sprouting, leading to an increase in the probability of crop failure. These findings underscore the importance of implementing adaptation measures to mitigate precipitation-related risk under future climates. Further, the findings provide valuable insights for winter wheat breeders and agronomists, thereby facilitating crop production adaptation.

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“…As a result, most of the protein has already been deposited in the grain [3]. The time of harvest is related to such plant characteristics as stage of maturity, tendency to stiffen and split, environmental factors such as rainfall, humidity and temperature [4]. Mode and timing to harvest are likely to be controllable factors that regulate the overall yield of cereal crops.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of harvesting timing and drying methods on yield attributes of wheat variety tj-83

Nabi¹

2023

PAB

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The study was carried out during the year 2015-16 to investigate the impact of harvesting times and drying methods on yield attributes of promising wheat TJ-83. Eight parameters of economic importance were studied which included: moisture content (%), plant height (cm), grains spikes m -2 , spikelets spike -1 , spike length (cm), harvesting index (%), biological yield (kg ha -1 ) and grain yield (kg ha -1 ). The results showed that wheat crop harvested on 130 (DAS) resulted in maximum 11.87% moisture content, 83.33 cm plant height, 54.33 grains spikes m -2 , 12.11 spikelets spike -1 , 19.33 cm spike length, 48.18% harvest index, 9946.67 kg biological yield ha -1 and 4792.00 kg grain yield ha -1 . In case of drying methods, bag store resulted in highest 11.78% moisture content, 81.25 cm plant height, 51.75 grains spikes m -2 , 10.91 spikelets spike -1 , 18.66 cm spike length, 47.39% harvest index, 9693.8 kg biological yield ha -1 and 4453.8 kg grain yield ha -1 followed by bag (open). Lease figure yield ha -1 and 4372.7 kg grain yield ha -1 .

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Improving wheat productivity reveals an emerging yield gap associated with short-term change in atmospheric humidity

Cited by 14 publications

References 52 publications

Assessing climate change risks associated with precipitation at unfavorable times in winter wheat using an improved crop calendar model incorporating vernalization and winter survival

Assessing climate change risks associated with precipitation at unfavorable times in winter wheat using an improved crop calendar model incorporating vernalization and winter survival

An improved crop calendar model for winter wheat incorporating vernalization and winter survival to project changes in phenology

Impact of harvesting timing and drying methods on yield attributes of wheat variety tj-83

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