Impulse and diffusion in the study of technical change

Metcalfe, J. Stanley

doi:10.1016/0016-3287(81)90120-8

Cited by 154 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Our conception of the adjustment gap is here very similar to that of Metcalfe (1981) in his diffusion model. We expect the adjustment gap to fall during the life cycle of the sector as new entrants raise the sectoral production capacity.…”

Section: ) the Conceptual Nature Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 61%

Economic development by the creation of new sectors

Saviotti

Pyka

2004

Journal of Evolutionary Economics

180

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The basic theme underlying this paper is qualitative change taking place during economic development. These changes in the composition of the economic system should become one of the most important variables in models of economic growth and development. Our knowledge of the relationship between economic development and qualitative change, however, is still very limited. This paper attempts to shed light on some important aspects of the role played by qualitative change in economic development, by laying the foundations of a model in which changes in the composition of the economic system are endogenously generated by the evolution of the system itself and, in turn, affect its future development. The model has a strong Schumpeterian flavour in that the first entrepreneur entering a market enjoys a temporary monopoly. This temporary monopoly is eroded by the entry of imitators, that gradually increases the intensity of competition. The saturation is reinforced as the demand for what was a new product comes to be satisfied. In this way the adjustment gap initially created by the innovation is eliminated transforming a niche into a mature market, which becomes one of the routines of the economic system. As soon as a sector becomes saturated there is an increasing inducement for incumbent firms to exit and to create a new niche, where once more they will have a temporary monopoly. To put it in another, slightly different, form, we can say that economic development is a process in which new activities emerge, old ones disappear, the weight of all economic activities and their patterns of interaction change. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2004Economic growth and development, Qualitative change, Neo-Schumpeterian-economics,

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Section: ) the Conceptual Nature Of The Modelmentioning

confidence: 61%

Economic development by the creation of new sectors

Saviotti

Pyka

2004

Journal of Evolutionary Economics

180

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“…Such a saturation level may arise from capacity limits (technological, economie and social) and reflects a "limits to growth" phenomenon stemming from congestion or lack of natural resources and other reproducible capital. Evidence on the decreasing productivity of R&D in case of more mature economie conditions can be found, among others, in Ayres (1987) and Metcalfe (1981). More generally, the productivity slowdown in recent decades of countries with historically high incomes has been well documented (see Williamson (1991) …”

Section: Constraints To Productivity Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Endogenous Technological Change, Innovation Diffusion and Transitional Dynamics in a Nonlinear Growth Model*

Nijkamp¹,

Poot

1993

Australian Economic Papers

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“…Bigger companies are expected to adopt earlier because of economies of scale advantages or available capabilities. Bonus (1973) applies a threshold analysis to the diffusion of household durables (cameras, TV sets, automobiles), using income as the critical stimulus (Metcalfe 1981;Amable 1992;Batten 1987;Leoncini 2001).…”

Section: Understanding Innovation Diffusion: From Epidemic Modelling mentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating social context and co-evolution in an innovation diffusion model—with an application to cleaner vehicles

Dijk¹,

Kemp²,

Valkering³

2011

J Evol Econ

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Existing diffusion models have proven less suitable for the analysis of environmental innovations, such as hybrid vehicles, which emerge in a context of changing social appraisal and regulatory support. In this paper, we offer an agent-based analysis of innovation diffusion which is better suitable for those cases. We explore future scenarios of car engine technology with support of a simulation model. In the model, actor behavior is modeled explicitly on the basis of actor frames and the consequent appraisal of technology options by potential adopters and by suppliers. The model is analytically novel in that it incorporates five feedback loops: interactive learning between suppliers and users, scale and learning economies, endogenous taste formation among consumers, and social learning (attribution of meaning). In the model, consumer decisions influence each other and the supply of innovation by shaping R&D and investment decisions of suppliers. The model is applied to explore future diffusion scenarios of clean vehicles, though it starts with simulating recent historic trends, including the quick diffusion of direct fuel injection systems and slow diffusion of electric vehicles in the last 20 years. It is shown that the success of hybrid electric vehicles critically depends on suppliers shifting towards HEV development and production (resulting in greater supply of HEV models) and on consumers valuing hybrid electric vehicles more than environmentally improved diesel vehicles.

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Impulse and diffusion in the study of technical change

Cited by 154 publications

References 12 publications

Economic development by the creation of new sectors

Economic development by the creation of new sectors

Endogenous Technological Change, Innovation Diffusion and Transitional Dynamics in a Nonlinear Growth Model*

Incorporating social context and co-evolution in an innovation diffusion model—with an application to cleaner vehicles

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