In-depth analysis and trends of cancer mortality in Kazakhstan: a joinpoint analysis of nationwide healthcare data 2014–2022

Abstract

Background Cancer remains a leading cause of death both globally and in Kazakhstan, making it crucial to track its mortality trends. This study aimed to investigate cancer mortality trends from 2014 to 2022 in Kazakhstan. Methods This study utilized data from Kazakhstan’s Unified National Electronic Health System to perform descriptive data analysis and employed Joinpoint regression models to analyze average annual percent change (AAPC) in cancer-related mortality estimates. The authors also examined the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and proportionate mortality (PM). Results The study analyzed 123,622 cancer-related death reports from 2014 to 2022. Major causes included trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (16.01%), stomach cancer (11.43%), and colon and rectum cancer (10.05%), accounting for 37.48% of all cancer-related deaths. AAPCs showed a significant increase in mortality for individuals aged 18–44 (1.36%; 95% CI: 0.05%; 2.71%), while those aged 45–59 and 60–74 experienced decreases of -2.02% (95% CI: -3.05%; -0.96%) and − 2.10% (95% CI:-3.22%; -0.96%), respectively. PM was stable until 2019 but decreased from 2020 to 2021, while MIR increased during the same period. A significant decrease in oesophageal cancer mortality was observed in both females (-4.03%; 95% CI: -6.11%; -1.83%) and males (-2.44%; 95% CI: -4.89%; -0.02%), whereas ovarian cancer mortality increased by 0.95% (95% CI: 0.03%; 1.91%). In males, mortality from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers decreased by -2.14% (95% CI: -3.00%; -1.25%), while “other neoplasms” rose by 6.21% (95% CI: 1.40%; 11.27%). Regional analysis highlighted variability, with the Kyzylorda region showing a pronounced increase in mortality (27.18%; 95% CI: 14.11%; 42.35%). Conclusions Despite slight increases in MIR during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall cancer mortality trends remained stable. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions, especially for individuals aged 18–44, ovarian cancer, and “other neoplasms”. Further research is needed to explore regional mortality variations. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-024-13128-2.