In NATO We Trust(?): The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and EU27 Citizens’ Trust in NATO

Economou, Athina; Kollias, Christos

doi:10.1515/peps-2023-0029

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…However, the bigger threat represented by having a war unfolding at the borders of Romania could make people look more positively to some institutions that can offer a greater sense of security. Through its serious political, security and defence implications for EU member states, the Russian invasion in Ukraine impacts citizens' trust in key institutions, such as NATO (Economou and Kollias, 2023).…”

Section: Illiberalism and Trust In Institutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of illiberalism in Romania: A case study during the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Bârgăoanu,

Durach,

Ştefăniţă

2023

New Perspectives

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Illiberalism emphasizes traditional values and national sovereignty over liberal democratic ideals, which can lead to the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. Against this background, the paper investigates the relationship between illiberalism and various political and social factors in Romania, taking into account a particular context (the Russian invasion in Ukraine). Romania has experienced a rise in illiberal attitudes and the spread of populist and nationalist rhetoric, which is particularly concerning given its strategic location as a member of the European Union and NATO, and its proximity to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This study aims to investigate the associations between various attitudes, news consumption habits, and perceived exposure to misinformation, and how these factors relate to levels of illiberalism in Romanian society. Given the increasing prominence of illiberal and populist ideologies globally, a nuanced understanding of these relationships is critical. The study employs a quantitative approach, leveraging an online survey to collect data from a sample of 1000 Romanian citizens. Soft quotas were used to ensure a diverse representation across age, gender, and education levels. Data collection was carried out by Dynata, a globally recognized market research firm, between March 1–9, 2022. Our analysis, informed by multiple regression models, uncovers complex relationships between trust in institutions, attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine, news consumption habits, perceived misinformation, and demographic factors in shaping illiberal perspectives. By providing a comprehensive understanding of the contributing factors, this study aims to inform public discourse and policy-making processes on how to address illiberal tendencies in society.

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Section: Illiberalism and Trust In Institutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictors of illiberalism in Romania: A case study during the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Bârgăoanu,

Durach,

Ştefăniţă

2023

New Perspectives

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“…Moreover, it could even act as a gentle facilitator with the potential to gradually push countries toward freer and more open political systems. The Zeitenwende [2] speech in the Bundestag by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz epitomizes the abrupt change in the "Wandel durch Handel" policy forcibly brought about by the Russian invasion (inter alia: Biscop, 2023;Fiott, 2023;Economou and Kollias, 2023;Bosse, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Militarization, globalization and liberal democracy: a nexus?

Kollias¹

2023

REPS

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PurposeUsing composite indices, the paper examines the nexus between militarization, globalization and liberal democracy. The democratic peace theory, the conflict inhibiting effects of international trade – a key and dominant facet of globalization – and the democracy promoting globalization hypothesis form the theoretical underpinnings of the empirical investigation.Design/methodology/approachTo probe into the issue at hand, the paper adopts a dynamic panel VAR estimation procedure. Given the usual data constraints, the sample consists of 113 countries, and the estimations span the period 1995–2019.FindingsThe findings from the dynamic panel VAR estimations suggest the presence of a negative and statistically significant nexus between the level of globalization and the level of militarization. No statistically traceable nexus between globalization and liberal democracy was found.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings offer empirical support to the hypothesis that the strong links of interdependence shaped by globalization reduce the need for military preparedness. The results lead to a tentative inference in favor of the doux commerce thesis. Nonetheless, given that the estimations span a historically specific period – the entire post-bipolar era – the inferences that stem from the findings should be treated with caution.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the composite indices Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) militarization index, the globalization index of the Swiss Economic Institute (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) (KOF), LibDem, polyarchy have not hitherto been jointly used in previous studies to examine the nexus between militarization, globalization and liberal democracy.

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The 2015 Refugee Crisis and Institutional Trust in European Countries

Economou,

Kollias

2024

Soc Indic Res

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Exogenous events have the potential to affect citizens’ risk-perceptions, (in)security sentiments, electoral choices, policy preferences and institutional trust levels. It has been shown that migrant and refugee flows also affect citizens’ trust and policy preferences. The 2015 refugee crisis as it has come to be known, shook Europe’s cohesion and tested the existing immigration and asylum policies as well as acted as a further stimulus to populist/right wing Eurosceptic parties with an agenda of anti-immigrant restrictive policies. Expectedly, it has attracted considerable attention in the relevant literature. Building on existing studies that examine various aspects associated with the 2015 refugee crisis, the present paper examines its effect on institutional trust levels in Europe. Specifically, it focuses on trust towards the national government, the EU and the two state security services the police and the armed forces. To this effect, the study draws data from successive Eurobarometer surveys before and after the crisis. Employing segmented-type regression models as well as Oaxaca decomposition models it probes into the 2015 refugee crisis’ impact on the levels of institutional trust using over 400,000 responses to the relevant Eurobarometer questions. The results reported herein suggest the presence of “a rally around the flag effect”. Nonetheless, macroeconomic factors such as GDP growth and unemployment as well as differences in behavioural responses also explain a large part of the observed gap in trust before and after the 2015 refugee crisis.

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In NATO We Trust(?): The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and EU27 Citizens’ Trust in NATO

Cited by 6 publications

References 57 publications

Predictors of illiberalism in Romania: A case study during the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Predictors of illiberalism in Romania: A case study during the Russian invasion in Ukraine

Militarization, globalization and liberal democracy: a nexus?

The 2015 Refugee Crisis and Institutional Trust in European Countries

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