In Party We Trust? Voter Support for Party-Backed Candidates in Primary Elections

How Much Is a Trump Endorsement Worth?

“…There are a multitude of factors that deserve attention in determining the influence of a political endorsement (Manento and Testa 2022). In this study, we looked specifically at the power of a Donald Trump endorsement in the Georgia GOP primary elections held on May 24, 2022.…”

“…They did not in 2016, and in winning the White House, Trump took control of the Republican Party. Manento andTesta (2022, 1654) pose an interesting question: "When a party outsider captures the party, who is then considered an outsider?" By the time former president Trump issued a slew of candidate endorsements in the 2022 midterm cycle, by dint of his enduring popularity among Republican voters and his remaining engaged in the political arena, Trump persisted as the de facto head of the GOP (Jacobson 2021).…”

“…With his passionate base of supporters and far-reaching influence within the GOP, Trump deployed Republican primary endorsements to continue leveraging current and future political concessions within the party he leads. 3 Given this reality, we should expect Trump's endorsement to be especially impactful in GOP primary contests, and there is evidence it was (Manento and Testa 2022).…”

“…As stated by Manento andTesta (2022, 1634), "In an age of popular primary elections, for party organizations to see their preferred candidates nominated, the voters must act in accordance with the wishes of party elites. Yet it is not clear that voters always follow the cues of the party."…”