In Silico Clinical Trial for Osteoporosis Treatments to Prevent Hip Fractures: Simulation of the Placebo Arm

Abstract

Osteoporosis represents a major healthcare concern. The development of novel treatments presents challenges due to the limited cost-effectiveness of clinical trials and ethical concerns associated with placebo-controlled trials. Computational models for the design and assessment of biomedical products (In Silico Trials) are emerging as a promising alternative. In this study, a novel In Silico Trial technology (BoneStrength) was applied to replicate the placebo arms of two concluded clinical trials and its accuracy in predicting hip fracture incidence was evaluated. Two virtual cohorts (N = 1238 and 1226, respectively) were generated by sampling a statistical anatomy atlas based on CT scans of proximal femurs. Baseline characteristics were equivalent to those reported for the clinical cohorts. Fall events were sampled from a Poisson distribution. A multiscale stochastic model was implemented to estimate the impact force associated to each fall. Finite Element models were used to predict femur strength. Fracture incidence in 3 years follow-up was computed with a Markov chain approach; a patient was considered fractured if the impact force associated with a fall exceeded femur strength. Ten realizations of the stochastic process were run to reach convergence. Each realization required approximately 2500 FE simulations, solved using High-Performance Computing infrastructures. Predicted number of fractures was 12 ± 2 and 18 ± 4 for the two cohorts, respectively. The predicted incidence range consistently included the reported clinical data, although on average fracture incidence was overestimated. These findings highlight the potential of BoneStrength for future applications in drug development and assessment.