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Background. The COVID-19 pandemic once again confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis for the development of the epidemic process is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans. In accordance with the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems, changes are associated not only with genetic variability, but also with other polydeterminant characteristics of the pathogen: when new genovariants appeared, SARS-CoV-2 became less pathogenic for humans, but more contagious. This circumstance is important not only for theoretical, but also for practical epidemiology, as it makes it possible to predict the direction of development of the epidemic situation. Aims — to evaluate the manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 through the prism of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems. Methods. An epidemiological retrospective analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 was carried out, including the study of absolute and intensive incidence rates per 100,000 population, the dynamics of changes in the properties of the coronavirus population, and the identification of SARS-CoV-2 genovariants for the period from 03.2020 to 04.2023. To analyze SARS-CoV-2 genovariants at various stages of the pandemic, we used sequencing data presented on the SARS-CoV-2 genome information aggregation platform Virus Genome Aggregator of Russia (VGARus) — more than 248 thousand genetic sequences. Results. During the pandemic, there have been seven ups and downs in the incidence of COVID-19. During the period of circulation in the human population and adaptation to a new host, a significant amount of data has accumulated on the evolutionary changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, taking into account the trends in the acquisition of new epidemiological properties. Conclusion. An analysis of the manifestations of the epidemic process of COVID-19, as a classic aerosol anthroponosis, confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis of its development is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans, based on negative feedback in the process of self-regulation.
Background. The COVID-19 pandemic once again confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis for the development of the epidemic process is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans. In accordance with the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems, changes are associated not only with genetic variability, but also with other polydeterminant characteristics of the pathogen: when new genovariants appeared, SARS-CoV-2 became less pathogenic for humans, but more contagious. This circumstance is important not only for theoretical, but also for practical epidemiology, as it makes it possible to predict the direction of development of the epidemic situation. Aims — to evaluate the manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 through the prism of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems. Methods. An epidemiological retrospective analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 was carried out, including the study of absolute and intensive incidence rates per 100,000 population, the dynamics of changes in the properties of the coronavirus population, and the identification of SARS-CoV-2 genovariants for the period from 03.2020 to 04.2023. To analyze SARS-CoV-2 genovariants at various stages of the pandemic, we used sequencing data presented on the SARS-CoV-2 genome information aggregation platform Virus Genome Aggregator of Russia (VGARus) — more than 248 thousand genetic sequences. Results. During the pandemic, there have been seven ups and downs in the incidence of COVID-19. During the period of circulation in the human population and adaptation to a new host, a significant amount of data has accumulated on the evolutionary changes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, taking into account the trends in the acquisition of new epidemiological properties. Conclusion. An analysis of the manifestations of the epidemic process of COVID-19, as a classic aerosol anthroponosis, confirmed the correctness of the theory of Academician V.D. Belyakov, according to which the basis of its development is a phase change in the heterogeneity of the biological properties of the interacting populations of the pathogen and humans, based on negative feedback in the process of self-regulation.
Background. In the post-pandemic period, Russia is characterized by a relatively high level of infectious morbidity, combined with the “infection surveillance” of the population and fear of possible epidemics. Managing health risks associated with the spread of infections requires a comprehensive approach that addresses both the healthcare system and individual behavior. Objective. To identify the features of subjective risk perception regarding infectious diseases and to describe behavior risk-associated strategies in a sample of urban populations in the Russian Federation. Methods. An empirical study was conducted using a mixed methodology. The first phase involved a formalized survey (n = 300) aimed at measuring the subjective perception of infectious disease risk and related behaviors. The second phase included an analysis of in-depth interviews (n = 11) in order to clarify the essence of behavior strategies aimed at managing the infectious disease risk. Descriptive statistics, odds ratio calculations, as well as correlation and factor analyses were employed for processing quantitative data by means of SPSS Statistics 21.0. Qualitative data analysis involved open and axial coding. Results. The development of infectious diseases is perceived as the most significant risk among residents of Russian metropolitan areas. The majority of respondents (80%) rate the risk at 0.5 or higher (indicating alarming and high levels of risk) and implement various measures for its management. Determinants influencing strategy choice include age (Pearson’s r = (-)0.539 at p < 0.001) and parental status (Spearman’s ρ = 0.360 at p < 0.05). Subjective risk assessment is not considered a statistically significant predictor of individual activity regarding risk. Factor analysis (model explanatory capacity 53%, p < 0.001) identified groups of actions aimed at risk reduction: 1) information seeking, 2) creating a protective space, and 3) interacting with the external environment. In-depth interview analysis clarified that despite a documented inclination towards action, individual behavior can be characterized as passive adaptation to the risk. Conclusion. Risk perception is found to be not a primary or necessary factor in choosing an active risk management strategy. The reluctance to take risk-reducing actions is associated with an external locus of control, which involves a belief that risk is uncontrollable and assigning responsibility to other subjects of the risk space. The findings may be considered in the development and improvement of measures to prevent the spread of infectious diseases, including health risk communication strategies
The article conducted an analysis of the relationship of fertility and wages in the regions of the Russian Federation for 2020, 2021 and 2022. It is shown that a decrease in the birth rate in many regions led to an increase in the number of regions with low birth rate (5.8–7.9 people by 1000) by 3 times. It was established that with salaries from 15 to 50–60 thousand rublesшIn a month, the birth rate depended on the level of salaries. At the same time, the intensity of the salary contribution to the birth rate depended on the salary. The lower the salary was, the more intense the influence of its birth rate is intensively expressed. The most intensive effect on the decrease in the birth rate was observed with salaries of 15–20 thousand rubles/month. The lowest birth rate was noted in regions in which more than 19 % of the population received a salary of less than 15 thousand rubles/month. Currently, with salaries of more than 60 thousand rubles a month, the influence of the economic factor on the birth rate is small. The results can be used in the development of issues to improve the demographic situation in the Russian Federation.
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