Incidence of Bark- and Wood-Boring Insects in Firewood: A Survey at Michigan's Mackinac Bridge

Haack, Robert A.; Petrice, Toby R.; Wiedenhoeft, Alex C.

doi:10.1603/ec10041

Cited by 58 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…However, we also found that 10% of trips involved distances of greater than 500 km. This is consistent with other research (Haack et al 2010;Jacobi et al 2011;USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 2011) suggesting that campers frequently transport firewood across state or provincial borders. Furthermore, much of the regulatory decision-making with respect to invasive species, including the implementation of firewood restrictions to limit forest pest spread, happens at the state or provincial level (Filbey et al 2002).…”

Section: Out-of-state Origin Risk Mapssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Because we did not have sufficient data to directly model the movement of forest pests in infested firewood, and instead modelled the travel of all campers as a proxy, then the resulting probabilities should not be interpreted as a depiction of the true risk. The actual probabilities of successful forest pest introduction via firewood are likely much lower than the numbers we present here, for various reasons; for instance, not all campers transport firewood, not all of the firewood they transport is infested, and not all infested firewood contains enough individuals of a potential pest species to support establishment upon arriving at a destination (Haack et al 2010;Haack et al 2011;Jacobi et al 2011;Koch et al 2012). Being able to better define λ t might bring us closer to estimating the true probabilities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…The initial processing of the NRRS data set is described in greater detail in . Notably, the data did not indicate camper firewood usage, so our model instead depicts the general travel behaviour of all campers as documented in the data, a consistent proportion of whom we assumed were carrying potentially infested firewood (for additional discussion regarding this proportion, see Haack et al 2010;Jacobi et al 2011;Koch et al 2012). We should also note that we ignored the visit date for this study, although we acknowledge that a visit's timing (e.g., in terms of a particular season) can affect the likelihood of pest emergence from firewood and subsequent establishment.…”

Section: Data Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In North America, there is increasing concern that forest pest invasions are being facilitated by the transport of firewood for recreational purposes (Haack et al 2010;Tobin et al 2010;Koch et al 2012). The concern has been particularly motivated by the ongoing range expansion of the highly destructive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) in the eastern U.S. and Canada, as infested firewood is considered one of the insect's primary vectors of spread (Muirhead et al 2006;Petrice and Haack 2006;Poland and McCullough 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal

Koch¹,

Yemshanov²,

Haack³

2013

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Citation: Koch FH, Yemshanov D, Haack RA (2013) Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal. In: Kriticos DJ, Venette RC (Eds) Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty. NeoBiota 18: 173-191. doi: 10.3897/neobiota.18.4016 Abstract Most modes of human-mediated dispersal of invasive species are directional and vector-based. Classical spatial spread models usually depend on probabilistic dispersal kernels that emphasize distance over direction and have limited ability to depict rare but influential long-distance dispersal events. These aspects are problematic if such models are used to estimate invasion risk. Alternatively, a geographic network model may be better at estimating the typically low likelihoods associated with human-mediated dispersal events, but it should also provide a reasonable account of uncertainties that could affect perception of its risk estimates. We developed a network model that assesses the likelihood of dispersal of invasive forest pests in camper-transported firewood in North America. We built the model using data from the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service, which document visitor travel between populated places and federal campgrounds across the U.S. and Canada. The study area is depicted as a set of coarse-resolution map units. Based on repeated simulations, the model estimates the probability that each unit is a possible origin and destination for firewood-facilitated forest pest invasions. We generated output maps that summarise, for each U.S. state and Canadian province, where (outside the state or province) a camper-transported forest pest likely originated. Treating these output maps as a set of baseline scenarios, we explored the sensitivity of these "origin risk" estimates to additive and multiplicative errors in the probabilities of pest transmission between locations, as well as random changes in the structure of the underlying travel network. We found the patterns of change in the origin risk estimates due to these alterations to be consistent across all states and provinces. This indicates that the network model behaves predictably in the presence of uncertainties, allowing future work to focus on closing knowledge gaps or more sophisticated treatments of the impact of uncertainty on model outputs.

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Section: Out-of-state Origin Risk Mapssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Data Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal

Koch¹,

Yemshanov²,

Haack³

2013

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“…The potential for accidental, long-distance transport of alien species with recreational travel has become a topic of considerable concern in North America (Haack et al 2010, Tobin et al 2010, Jacobi et al 2011, Koch et al 2012. Visitors often bring untreated firewood to parks and campgrounds in the U.S. and Canada, and this material has been recognized as a significant vector of wood-boring forest pests (CFIA 2011, APHIS 2010, The Nature Conservancy 2011, Jacobi et al 2011).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Yemshanov¹,

Koch²,

Ducey³

et al. 2013

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Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse) course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first-and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion. NeoBiotaDenys Yemshanov et al. / NeoBiota 18: 193-218 (2013) 194While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decisionmaking preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and outreach activities, which can be costly. Our results are especially important and useful given the huge number of camping trips that occur each year in the United States and Canada.

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Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Yemshanov

Haight

MacQuarrie

et al. 2020

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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1. Multi-day survey campaigns are critical for timely detection of biological invasions. We propose a new modelling approach that helps allocate survey inspections in a multi-day campaign aimed at detecting the presence of an invasive organism. 2. We adopt a team orienteering problem to plan daily inspections and use an acceptance sampling approach to find an optimal surveillance strategy for emerald ash borer in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The manager's problem is to select daily routes and determine the optimal number of host trees to inspect with a particular inspection method in each survey location, subject to upper bounds on the survey budget, daily inspection time, and total survey time span. 3. We compare optimal survey strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first problem minimizes the expected number of survey sites (or area) with undetected infestations. The second problem minimizes slippage-the expected number of undetected infested trees in sites that were not surveyed or where the surveys did not find infestation. 4. We also explore the impact of uncertainty about site infestation rates and detection probabilities on the surveillance strategy. Accounting for uncertainty helps address temporal and spatial variation in infestation rates and yields a more robust surveillance strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support delimiting survey programs for biological invasions at various spatial scales. K E Y W O R D S biological invasions, emerald ash borer, multi-day survey campaigns, optimal routing, optimization, pest detection, surveys and sampling 1 INTRODUCTION Delimiting surveys are among the most common tools used to monitor biological invasions, but they require costly and coordinated efforts over extended periods of time (

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Incidence of Bark- and Wood-Boring Insects in Firewood: A Survey at Michigan's Mackinac Bridge

Cited by 58 publications

References 22 publications

Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal

Representing uncertainty in a spatial invasion model that incorporates human-mediated dispersal

Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

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